Under next year's inflation expectations, the consumer sector, represented by spirits, has continued to soar recently. It is generally believed in the market that this is the result of institutions "huddling together to keep warm".

As of press time, spirits began to make a slight correction. Is this the time to increase your position? Will institutional syndicates disintegrate? How to treat the next consumption market dominated by liquor? How to treat the recent "restlessness" of the consumer sector in Hong Kong stocks?

For the above hot issues, a number of public and private equity firms have expressed their latest views.

What did the agency say? Let's take a look.

Liquor continues to soar.

Let's first look at a set of data:

On January 5, the second trading day of the New year, liquor stocks continued to soar, and share prices hit record highs one after another. Among them, Guizhou Moutai rose 3.13%, the market value increased by 78.5 billion yuan a day; Wuliangye rose 7.36%, and the market value reached 1.24 trillion; Luzhou laojiao, Yanghe shares and Shanxi Fenjiu rose 7.25%, 6.77% and 3.22% respectively. Second-and third-tier liquor enterprises such as Shuijingfang and Yingjiagong Liquor have risen by the daily limit.

According to Choice data, from the last week before the "New year" (December 28, 2020-January 5, 2021), A-share consumer stocks with a market capitalization of more than 10 billion yuan have risen by more than 40%, while Hong Kong stocks have risen by more than 26%.

Specifically, during the period, alcoholic wine in A shares rose more than 40%, Shuijingfang, Golden Dragon Fish and Guyue Longshan rose 39.73%, 37.39% and 32.15% respectively, and many food and beverage stocks such as New Hope, Muyuan shares, Luzhou laojiao and Jinshiyuan rose more than 20%.

In fact, the collective carnival of liquor stocks has been going on for a long time.

Since the beginning of 2020 alone, in one year, Jiugui Liquor has increased by 400%, Shanxi Fen Liquor by 332%, Luzhou laojiao by 202%, Wuliangye by 144%, Yanghe shares by 145%, and even Guizhou Moutai, which has a huge market capitalization base, by 76%.

However, as of press time, the liquor sector has begun a slight pullback.

To thisLiu Youhua, senior researcher of private placement networkAccording to the analysis, on the one hand, the rise in the liquor sector is due to the scarcity and certainty of performance, which are favored by northward funds and institutions to keep warm; on the other hand, liquor shows a very strong rigid demand and growth. With the Spring Festival approaching, the spirit shows a stronger demand, at the same time, driven by the upgrading of consumption, the liquor industry has more room for long-term growth. But at present, the valuation of liquor is already at an all-time high, although the performance of liquor forms a long-term support to the stock price, it still needs to guard against the risk of trampling.

Meanwhile,Cheese Fund Manager Zhuang HongdongIt is said that the recent strong performance of liquor is related to the short-term pre-festival effect and good performance forecast. Recently, some liquor companies have issued price increase announcements, reflecting the strong demand in the liquor market.

"in the long run, we are optimistic about the high-end liquor business. Liquor is an industry with high profit, weak periodicity and strong certainty, and the inventory has no risk of depreciation, almost pure domestic demand and little external shock. These attributes make the liquor industry have the characteristics of high-quality investment. But in the short term, the valuation of the liquor sector is high, so we should pay attention to controlling the position. "

In fact, some data show that at present, these spirits are the objects of the organization's "hugging". From the perspective of public offering fund income TOP30's public offering products, the top ten heavy stocks are distributed in consumption and new energy, and the most consumption is liquor.

This also means that behind the institutional hugging is the continuous rise of embraced stocks and related sectors and the gradual marginalization of small-cap stocks.

The consumption of Hong Kong stock market is moved by the wind

As a matter of fact, many consumer companies in Hong Kong stocks have also been rising recently. Since last Monday, Hyundai Animal Husbandry, Zhou's Black Duck, NONGFU SPRING CO., LTD., Great Wall Motor and other stocks have risen more than 20 per cent in each period.

For the recent rise in the consumer sector of Hong Kong stocks, fund managers believe that this is transmitted by A shares.

Lu Hengjun, Fund Manager of the International Business Department of the Great Wall FundThe analysis said, "first of all, we note that the best performance of Hong Kong stocks and A shares in 2020 happens to be their own characteristic sectors, such as A shares have a large number of liquor stocks, Hong Kong stocks have none, and most of the high-quality photovoltaic leaders are also concentrated in A shares. On the other hand, Internet technology stocks have performed better in Hong Kong, which shows that investors in the two markets have chosen their own best quality stocks to invest.

Consumer stocks are highly preferred by investors. from the investment logic, the performance of consumer stocks is stable, and the upgrading of domestic consumption is deterministic. As investors have inflation expectations after a round of global monetary easing, the logic of price increases for consumer products also exists.On the COVID-19 epidemic, the domestic epidemic is basically under control, and consumption has recovered. although the epidemic abroad has been repeated, it is believed that with the popularization of vaccines in 2021, the epidemic will eventually become a thing of the past. "

Lu Hengjun continued, "in fact, there are also some high-quality consumer leading stocks in Hong Kong stocks, especially milk enterprises, pork enterprises, catering, beer and so on, which are also sought after by Hong Kong stock investors as the core assets of China. In addition, the valuation of Hong Kong stocks also has obvious advantages compared with A-shares. In the case of a sharp rise in A-share consumer stocks, under the interconnection mechanism, Hong Kong consumer stocks also resonate with A-shares, and the stock prices have a better performance. "

Private placement: the probability of the collapse of institutional corporate shares in 2021 is very low.

The survey results of the private placement network show that 69.23% of the private equity companies believe that 2021 corporate shares will not disintegrate, and some people point out that the phenomenon of institutions embracing core assets will only become more and more intense. However, some private equity companies believe that the tight background of 2021 funds no longer supports the substantial overdraft of these overvalued stocks.

Lejing, the manager of Changtian asset fund.It is believed that the huddling effect of 2021 institutions will not be weakened, because the dominant pricing power of the market is public offering funds, and the market has no other choice but to constantly strengthen the huddling.

Captain invests in Mak Ho-MingHold a different view. He said that huddling will be weakened, institutional investors buying and selling decisions and plate rotation are based on one-year performance-to-price factors, next year may be tight, do not support the valuation of hot sectors of the large overdraft.

Hu Bo, Fund Manager of Private Placement NetworkSaid that the phenomenon of institutional huddling will continue next year, but the plates may change and rotate. Because in the long run, institutions adhere to value investment, the general direction of the layout of high-quality stocks will not change, so institutions will certainly continue to embrace core assets, so the phenomenon of huddling will continue to exist. and with the deepening of this huddling phenomenon, the effect of A-share value investment will become more and more intense, the two-tier differentiation of the market will intensify, and the structural bull market will also unfold.