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霍华德·马克斯:理解投资世界的不确定性

Howard Max: understanding the uncertainty of the investment world

紅與綠 ·  Feb 4, 2022 11:06

Source: red and green

Author: Howard Max

The world is made up of uncertainty, and what really hurts us is not what we don't know, but what we think we know. Investment is to combat this uncertainty through a complete system. It can be the grasp of the large cycle, the study of the margin of safety, the mining of high-quality companies, or the understanding of human nature. Everyone has his own way, but we have to know that the future is unpredictable and the nature of the world is chaotic.

1. You must understand that the world is made up of uncertainty.

We need to realize that the world is a world full of uncertainty, so that we can understand how to deal with it. If you think the way to deal with the future is to accurately predict what will happen in the future, think you are right and use it as a basis for action, you must be asking for trouble. If something unexpected happens, you may end badly.

The humorous Mark Mark Twain once said:"what gets you into trouble is not what you don't know, but what you think you know but are actually wrong. "I think too much faith in the future may be the source of danger.

two。 Risk is exactly what most people think will not happen.

What is risk? A very good interpretation is that "risk means that something unexpected always happens" (Risk Means More Things Can Happen Than Will Happen) (pointed out by Eloy Elroy Dimson, a professor at the London School of Economics).

If a risk is in the current market and most investors think it will happen, then it is not a risk; if most investors think that something will not happen in the future, then it is the risk.

But the truth is that we never know whether something will happen, and from this point of view, we must try to understand the future and understand its possibilities, but never assume that we have fully figured it out.

3. There is no particularly bad record, good, old, good, sometimes bad.

What is a good way to invest? Steady, no particularly bad record, so good outdated, good sometimes bad. It goes on for 10 years, 20 years, 30 years, 40 years. We call this kind of investment performance a success.

4. How should you invest?

First, you have to consider what kind of investment results will come out in the future.When building a portfolio, the portfolio must be at least OK, that is, it is still feasible in any possible scenario.

Second, strive to control risks.The risk is not to get out of control in any scenario you can consider, so that you don't encounter poor investment performance.

Third, we don't assume that we can understand macroeconomics, but we really should know more about microcosmic things.What is microcosmic? That is, companies, industries and securities. On the to-do list of these specific, smaller images, if you study these projects very hard and have the right skills, you can understand these companies better than others.

5. Never forget that a man six feet tall may drown in a stream with an average depth of five feet.

People who regard investment as their lives should understand that this market is not enough for everyone to survive on an average, but for those who regard investment as their lives, we must survive every day.So our portfolio needs to be able to support us through the most difficult times. Our portfolio should be designed with enough professionalism, full risk considerations, and enough conservatism so that we can get through those difficult times.

6. What is the task of the asset manager

First, control the risk.

What is the task of the asset manager? Do you make a lot of money? Beat the market? Did you beat Wall Street? We disagree with all of this. The first job of an asset management manager is to control risks. We in Oak put risk control at the highest level.

Second, stability.

Our investment performance will not rank first this year and then last next year. We are usually in the middle, and because of our excellent risk control, we will stand out in difficult times. We have achieved this goal in the past 30 years.

We get average earnings, average earnings are fine in good times, it's enough for everyone to make money in good times, but our customers want us to do better than average in a bear market. To sum up very simply: in a bull market, we get average returns, and in a bear market, we get excess returns.

I think this is the secret of our company's growth. We have reached a scale of hundreds of billions of dollars in 20 years, from 3.5 billion in 2006 to 100 billion today.

Edit / Jeffy

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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