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One chart: Traders weigh bigger Fed rate hike in March

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Molly wealth talk joined discussion · Jan 19, 2022 03:47
According to Bloomberg, in options, traders hedge potential 50bp hike at March meeting.

What's priced in now? Full 25bp hike priced by March FOMC and four hikes priced for the year.
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
While a quarter-point increase is still the most likely scenario, swap markets are now pricing in more than 25 basis points of tightening by the end of March. The Fed hasn't tightened that much in one shot since May 2000, when its tightening cycle was already well underway.

In the enurodollar market, strategies that protect against Fed hikes have been in demand, with options volumes running at higher than usual levels.

Positions have notably amassed in the June options contract, which stand to pay-out should the Fed lift rates by 50 basis points at the March meeting.

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