The past 21 years have undoubtedly been a very unusual year for capital markets: inflationary explosion, growth stocks killing valuations, cold winter, and the Federal Reserve turning into an eagle at the end of the year. Investors face more challenges than usual. In the past 22 years, US stocks have been in a big shock, and the anxious market seems to have lost its way.

So what should I buy this year? Perhaps some clues to this problem can be found in a special group, such as the "god of shares" Pelosi, a congresswoman. Before talking about Pelosi, we might as well compare and take a look at the head of the Cathie Wood,Ark fund, another goddess of the 20-year war.

The leek road of Sister Wood?

20 years wooden elder sister because flagship fund Arkk heavy position Tesla, Inc. walks into the altar, is known as "bull market queen", is sought after by a large number of retail investors. And her daily operation is open and transparent, so it is convenient to track and copy homework. However, 21 years later, as can be seen in the chart above, the performance of Arkk is declining, with a stunning return of-44.7% in the past year.

If it is a bear market, it may be excusable, but over the same period, the performance of the S & P 500 was + 24.5% muri-a gap of nearly 70 points. If you chose to hold Arkk for a long time last year, you can imagine. That's why more and more netizens are angrily calling it a "big leek", so much so that there is even a SARK fund that specializes in shorting Ark-- as shown below, Sark has made a return of about 40% since its launch in November.

Taking a further look, Sister Mu had basically nothing to admire except Tesla, Inc. last year. And last year, Q4, she continued to sell Tesla, Inc., constantly increasing her positions in companies that she thought would have the ability to revolutionize innovation in the future, such as Teladoc Health,Roku, Zoom and so on.

Maybe these wooden sisters' heart stocks will have a good return in five years or more, but there is still no reversal of the predicament. For example, the share price of Roku, the fourth largest position of Arkk (5.91%, which is still up compared to 21Q3), has fallen nearly 70% since its peak, while the key fundamental data still have no positive trend.

The rise of Pelosi, the god of congressman stock

In contrast to Sister Wood, there is another invisible stock goddess, Pelosi, who silently makes money. (note: in the United States, officials can invest in stocks or buy funds, but they just have to declare and disclose them openly and transparently).

First of all, let's take a look at who Pelosi is-Pelosi, 82, the third in line to the throne of the president of the United States, has served as speaker of the House of Representatives for 19 years, is the first female speaker of the House of Representatives in US history, and is now known as the most powerful woman in American politics.

The issue of US policy does not fall within the scope of our discussion, we only do some learning about its income. As speaker, Pelosi's annual salary is about $220000, which is a standard high-and middle-income group, but this is nothing compared to her stock market income.

In fact, in July last year, Yahoo Finance, a well-known financial media in the United States, posted an article entitled "how rich is Pelosi?" The article points out that she is the highest-paid person in the U.S. Congress, and that most of her income comes from stock speculation (through the operation of her husband's company).

As early as 18 years, Pelosi's wealth has reached $115 million, ranking seventh in Congress. Since then, her wealth is still growing at an accelerated pace, so let's review some of her operations. For example, in February 20, I bought Alphabet Inc-CL C's call (call option). Even at the peak of the stock price of $1532 at the time, it has basically doubled its earnings so far. The point is, Pelosi's operation is basically to buy call, that is, 100x leverage (a call option = 100th share), so you can imagine how much she bought.

Let's take a look at a few waves of operations over the past 21 years:

On March 19, 2001, Pelosi bought 25000 shares of Microsoft Corp's shares twice through the previously bought Microsoft Corp call option at an exercise price of US $130 (15000 shares) and US $140 (10000 shares), respectively. Even if it was sold immediately at $230 for the day, Pelosi's earnings were $100, 15, 000, 90, 000, 000 = 2.4 million. What's more, Microsoft Corp's share price rose all the way last year, reaching as high as $349.

Coincidentally, after her purchase, Microsoft Corp won a defense order contract worth $22 billion and bought Nuance for $19.7 billion in April 21, prompting the share price to rise, so it was constantly questioned that it was insider trading. There are a lot of things like this, but Pelosi certainly denies it.

In addition to Microsoft Corp, Pelosi also bought the first meta-universe Roblox, Alphabet Inc-CL C, Tesla, Inc., NVIDIA Corp, Apple Inc and other call options in the past 21 years, almost every one of which is a classic case.

After so many divine operations, we naturally have to pay attention to her every move, I believe there will be a lot of wealth password. In terms of recently disclosed deals, Pelosi bought millions of dollars worth of call options at the end of last year.

As can be seen from the chart above, Pelosi's operation is generally to buy long-term call (long-term call options) of large-cap technology stocks, which expire in September and January next year. Those who bought more were Alphabet Inc-CL C (US $50-1 million), Salesforce.com Inc (US $150-3.5 million, divided into two stages), Walt Disney Company (US $10-2.5 million), and so on.

With regard to this purchase list, it is needless to say that giant Alphabet Inc-CL C has exceeded expectations in the last six earnings seasons, with steady growth in advertising revenue and a trend of continuous efforts in cloud computing. And last year, Apple Inc's privacy policy had a huge negative impact on Meta and Snap Inc, but Alphabet Inc-CL C was left alone or even benefited, and the driving force for future market capitalization to continue to expand is still sufficient.

First of all, what is more puzzling is Salesforce.com Inc (which is basically the largest buyer of Pelosi this time), because according to the research reports of some head investment banks (such as UBS), the growth rate of the US software industry may slow in the future, while the valuation water level of the plate is very high, which is also the core reason for the cliff decline of the SaaS plate in the past two months. Adobe Inc has fallen about 20 per cent after Adobe12, another giant, reported results in the middle of the month and management gave poor guidance for next year. So can Salesforce.com Inc rise against the trend? Does Pelosi have some unique information?

Another thing that is slightly puzzling is Walt Disney Company. Although the operation of this established empire will not be bad, but judging from the financial results of the last quarter, the growth of the streaming media business is not optimistic, and the driving force of the stock price is relatively weak. Moreover, the streaming track is naturally rolled up, with the eldest brother Netflix Inc in the front, and giants such as Amazon.Com Inc and Apple Inc all throwing money into the track (tens of billions of dollars a year). Even the rookie Roku mentioned above is also making efforts to develop on its own. Does Pelosi have any original views on this?

In addition to the giants, you can see that Pelosi has once again increased his position in the first Roblox of meta-universe, as well as the new opening of Meguiar.

For the question of whether the assignment is worth copying, you can take a look at Pelosi's return over the past year-- according to Open Secrets, Pelosi returned 56% in 21 years, beating the S & P, Warren Buffett and Wall Street's top hedge funds.

Let's stop here about Pelosi and end with a sentence.

"I choose not to own any shares so that I can be fair to policy-making. "--Nancy Pelosi