In this paper, every sentence is the essence, which tells the essence of value investment. I hope my readers will read it carefully, this is an article that sublimates everyone's investment concept!

01 what does professional investment need to do

Although the exposure to the stock market is not very short, it is really a struggle to weigh it as the family's only source of income and a career.

First of all, mental and physical inertia, career how more than 10 years, periodic rest for a few months is very cool, but do not go to nine to five, there is really a feeling of inadaptability.

In addition, the volatility of the securities market is well known, it is always uneasy to put the growth of household assets in this place, and the title of "stock speculation" does not seem to sound as good as the previous title. This is my typical state of mind two years before I take a break.

The gradual change of this feeling is a gradual process, and the adaptation of the state of life is on the one hand, and more importantly, with unremitting study and thinking, I begin to understand in essence what is the stock, what is the stock market, what is investment and other issues that have never been clearly understood (although a major stock investment in the past has achieved a good return. But I know in my heart that it was definitely a fluke and there is no possibility of long-term replication.

This learning gets out of hand, the more you learn, the more problems you have, the more you try to find answers, the more you learn, the more difficult it is to integrate and even have a sense of conflict, and the more contradictions you are, the more you keep thinking and summarizing, just like getting caught up in the process of constantly killing BOSS and upgrading an online game, until one day, you suddenly feel "unobstructed" and the muscle in your head is scattered.

From then on, I gradually realized the "beauty of investment"-Investment is no longer the fluctuation of prices, the struggle with countless opponents, the desperate or uncertain, the impetuous desire weaving anxiety, the investment is about the historical process, it is about the social trend, it is about the nature of business, it is about philosophy and values, it is about the way of thinking, it is about self-cultivation, it is full of rhythm and beauty.Naturally, in this process, I gradually fumbled for an investment model that is more suitable for my character, specialty and financial characteristics through study and continuous practice.

When this moment arrived, I began to realize that my life was about to open a completely different page. I am still treading on thin ice and there are still many questions unanswered or verified, but since then, I no longer hesitate and hesitate. I know what my new goal and direction in life is, and I know that I enjoy it.

In fact, career investment is not mysterious at all, it is no different from the essence of going to work every day: making money.

But frankly speaking, the life of investment is still very satisfactory, for example, you don't have to climb out of bed in the morning and wake up naturally; you can read, play games, shop and watch movies instead of worrying in the boss-customer-employee endless cycle; instead of being a frequent parting family of flying people, you can stay together silently. You no longer have to compete with the gods for guest rooms and air tickets during the Golden week, but theoretically have the ability to go as soon as you want; you don't have to put up with boring office politics and all kinds of hesitant scruples; you don't have to struggle to compete one by one just to keep climbing, but forget what life is all about in the first place.? What is the ultimate meaning of pursuing wealth and freedom?

In fact, it is the freedom of personality, the freedom of body and mind. Although industry can and has brought me an unforgettable sense of professional honor and achievement, this sense of achievement also exists or even stronger in the field of investment-if life can experience the sense of achievement in these two aspects at the same time, that's not in vain.

So, for me, investing is probably the best job I can find in the world-it depends entirely on your own head, it's always impartial, it's simple and direct.

Perception of the past four years in 2002

These four years of career investment is only a short period in my life, but it is also a meaningful one. Maybe he represents the end of one life and the beginning of another.

Obviously, as far as I'm concerned, I haven't been on the stock market for a long time, and I've only been on the market for about six years (including not even knowing what a PE is for 2 years, and it's a blessing that I haven't been hit hard).

But frankly, I think time is both a problem and a problem. It is not a problem, because I feel that value investment is actually a collection of many key success points, each of which is separated by a layer of window paper, and what is needed to open these window paper is not "time" but "way of thinking". The way of thinking is not a matter of time accumulation (for example, Buffett's recently appointed successor, Todd Combs, is only 39, which makes people wonder why there is such a big gap between people), but a kind of "understanding" that combines a lot of things.

Time is another problem because, after all, investment is a very practical combination of science and art, and "experience" is of irreplaceable significance to the improvement of investment ability. I think it is difficult for a person who is too young or a person with too short securities experience to really mature.So my conclusion is that investors with the right way of thinking can become more and more powerful over time, but time makes no sense for "stock speculators" with the wrong way of thinking. The 1 year of the former may be equal to 5 years or even 10 years of the latter, while the 10 years of the latter may not be equal to 2 or 3 years of the former.

Even in these short years of investment, I have witnessed the legends and falls of individual characters in the stock market. They all became famous at the height of their fame in the first world war, but then plummeted and even became infamous. As said in "those things in the Ming Dynasty", "A person is still very strong on this page, but he has already become a pussy on the next page", but the efficiency of the securities market is much higher than that of history, hehe. I don't know if these characters are valuable to others, but they are of great value to me. I can summarize them into two items:

1. It's easy for a person to turn into fireworks, but it's hard to turn into the sun. When a person says he is the sun, we'd better think about whether he is fireworks or not.

2. The stock god is not pretending, but Sun Tzu is faking it.

I am very sorry that this market is still full of opinions and news that are very bad for investment every day, and they have always been the most popular.

Although I know that this is very much in line with human nature and the laws of the stock market, I still feel a little sad.

Fortunately, in my limited investment career, the time spent on that adds up to only a few months, although humanly speaking, I have stepped into the same trap in an attempt to find flowers and fruits. But soon my personality and way of thinking did not allow me to believe those things-I later learned that Buffett was also strongly obsessed with technical analysis and short-term operations. But before the age of 30, he completed all the negative aspects of human nature and began to embark on the road of value investment, which eventually became the greatest investor of all time.

From this point of view, I am lucky.

The principle of value investment is permanent and its practice can never be popularized. 80% of the people in the market will not understand the meaning of value investment, and 80% of those who understand it will be unable to understand and master enough "specific method system" for various reasons. Therefore, this contradiction gives a long-term and great opportunity to a small number of people who are finally lucky enough to enter the door of value investment. From this point of view, I am lucky again.

Not people in any country and at any time have access to major investment opportunities, even if he is smarter than Buffett. China is in the critical and golden period of national development, and the arrival of this historical stage is a huge maternal lottery. The rise of China is not a possibility but a reality. The rise of China is the rise of thousands of Chinese families. Today, you and I both have this historic opportunity.

From this point of view, I am still lucky. Therefore, luckily, I must seriously grasp the opportunities given by this era. The so-called serious is to treat investment as a serious job, without the pressure of the boss, but you have to learn by yourself, without the urging of clients, but you have to have a sense of urgency. There is no expert team to grade you, but you need to know how many pounds you are.

Investment is so free that it is up to you to decide how far you can go and whether you are willing to move forward or not. I remember that when Stephen Chow was down in the King of Comedy, he did not forget to open "the self-cultivation of an actor", in which there was a strong expectation of success, but I think it is more likely to love or even indulge in this kind of career from the bottom of my heart. Therefore, when I started my blog, I wrote the title "self-cultivation of a retail investor", which is exactly what I meant.

Why are some people always growing in the stock market while more people are always spinning around?The biggest difference is not the phased difference in IQ or expertise (which is easy to catch up with). The determining factor is: do you take investment as a matter of fact?Especially as an opportunity to really change fate? If you choose "yes", then there is no doubt that it will make a long-term "personal growth plan", which I call "planned quantitative change".

That is to say, based on the goal is very long-term, and consistently take the initiative and plan to improve their own "experience value", and lead to "continuous upgrading"-just as we are in the workplace, if we want to move up, we must improve our self-quality. what textual research, reading and further training will be very natural and full of subjective initiative, is that right? What is the difference between investment? When we are in the workplace, we never think that it is possible for us to become the boss directly from an intern. Is that right? Investment, why do you think that without hard study and long honing, you can reap as fruitful fruits as your successful predecessors?

This kind of "planned quantitative change" will eventually lead to a gradual distinction and a growing gap between people in the way of thinking, vision, judgment, behavior, and so on. This is what I call "learning compound interest"-this may lead to a group of people starting at the same time, those who stand still in the back have begun to understand what the people in front are saying, it is no exaggeration.

This is the key secret that a small number of people end up making huge gains while the vast majority of people end up doing nothing and constantly wasting historic opportunities. Unfortunately, only a small number of people will always understand this, and there will always be fewer of them willing to take action-in fact, this is the biggest barrier to joining the "successful investor club".

As I said a long time ago, there is no difference between those who study and those who do not study every day, and there is little difference every month. Although the gap is obvious every year, it does not seem to be a big deal. But every five years, that is the great distinction between wealth!.!.

Wait until 10 years to see, it is an unreachable gap between one kind of life and another kind of life. Seize the moment, learn from now on, and take action on your dreams. These are the most heartfelt words I give to all my good friends.

If my biggest investment perception in recent years is, it may be: don't complicate the simple things, and don't simplify the complex things. A lot of people like to add variables to their investment as much as possible, such as macro, micro, technology, fundamentals, games. You'd better use everything you've heard of, thinking that this is the only way to be "comprehensive". In fact, he fell into the "variable labyrinth" set by himself without knowing it. Or make some simple things mysterious, complicated or even metaphysical, so as to make people proud to be unfathomable after listening to the five mysteries.

In addition, many people regard investment as a pure artistic act and seriously ignore that investment is first of all a rigorous science, or infinitely elevate the importance of one aspect and ignore others, such as "A great enterprise will not sell even if it dies". For example, if you read a few brokerage reports at most, it is an analysis of the company, or cling to the stubbornness of "you can only buy if you fall below your net assets". For example, F10 or at most to read a few brokerage reports is an analysis of the company, or cling to the stubbornness of "falling below net assets". For example, "find the fastest growing performance in the past two years" and so on. If you spend another 10 or 20 years in the stock market, it will be difficult to get any good results from the above.

The general principle of successful investment is actually very simple: follow common sense, use compound interest, margin of safety, moat, keep rational, ability circle. All in all, it must be enough in less than 50 words. However, the specific composition of successful investment is very complex.

A qualified or mature investor should not be limited to one aspect of ability, but should be in the identification of risk opportunities, the understanding of business, the analysis of the meaning of financial data, the self-control of emotion, the basic and multi-angle valuation measurement, the foresight of the overall situation, the cognition of historical regularity, and a highly logical way of thinking. Even from some small things to see the real and so on a series of abilities, so it is indeed very difficult.

Unlike technical analysis, it is like a book of heaven at first glance, but in fact, the more you come into contact, the more you understand that the key issues are shrinking to a few points, and the value investment is plain vernacular at first glance, but the more you drill, the more knowledge points are involved. the more you go up, the wider the scope of the required ability. I think it's really hard to keep going if you're just driven by making money without real interest.

I said a lot about the meaning of "to do", so "how to do"? In other words, is there any shortcut to the growth of the investment road? Yes, that is: standing on the shoulders of giants.

As the saying goes, "if you are familiar with 300 Tang poems, you can recite them even if you don't know how to recite them." in fact, there is no difference in investment. When a large number of classics and investment people's profound thoughts are imprinted into their minds, it is the process of constantly rising the realm of thinking. A lot of reading is the best "Jiuyin True Sutra". It may not make you rise to the sky in one step, but it can at least save you more than ten years of detours.For example, even if there are huge differences in the style of investment, almost all investment masters warn: don't operate frequently in the short term, don't think you can predict the market, and don't let your sanity get out of control. To make use of compound interest, we should respect common sense and stay away from risks.

We can think more about it. Why? Do you still have to challenge these? Where does the "feeling" about the market and business come from? Why is it that the same enterprise is placed in the hands of one person, like a cook and a cow, pointing straight to the core, while in the hands of another person, it is like a lion biting a tortoise and there is nothing you can do about it? Although the differences in individual talents are not ruled out here, I think what is more important is whether there is sufficient "opening" and subsequent persistent "practice".

Standing on the shoulders of giants and then practice makes perfect, sometimes the difference comes from-precisely because the answer is too simple to meet the expectations of many "quick rich", so it is doomed to be on the edge forever. It is also doomed to get the return of the market forever-some things in the world are so ironic.

After a lot of reading, it is important to learn to think dialectically and learn to do "subtraction"-on the contrary, most of the people I see are trying to build a more and more complex investment system and think that this is "professional". Personally, I really disagree. On the basis of a lot of reading and thinking, how to make their own investment model more simple, the so-called practice makes perfect, the more simple and time-tested things are more repeatable.

But history and the laws of the stock market tell us that the long-term average yield of the market is only about 6-8%. A stage of ultra-high yield will inevitably lead to a strong mean return. Whether in terms of corporate performance or the rate of return in the securities market, mean return is an inescapable iron law!

Therefore, for all long-term investors who have completed a good layout, how to ensure a successful exit after a generous bull market reward and avoid the main downside of the next big bear market, which is destined to be encountered, will be the decisive factor in the final division of wealth.

In short, with the increase of assets, the relative importance of seizing bull market opportunities is significantly less than the importance of avoiding bear markets and other major investment risks.

The key point of wealth appreciation in the initial stage is to find a long and slippery snowpath (the correct method that is effective and replicable for a long time) and to push the small snowball to enter a scale base faster (continuous rolling and faster growth of small principal). At the intermediate stage, the snowball has entered a stable snowpath (a more mature and fixed investment model) and has a strong self-rolling inertia (the power of compound interest appears. The absolute return of doubling the value of a large principal every 3-5 years may exceed that of 10 times the previous 10 years under a small principal). At this time, the most important thing is not to make this bigger and bigger snowball faster. But to avoid hitting a prominent mountain halfway and falling apart (avoiding accident risk is the top priority, missing is not the problem, the problem is fault).

Finally, I'm sure someone will ask me how I can make a living by investing in my career.

I think the answer is simple:

First, you must be genuinely interested in investing from the bottom of your heart, not just to make money, especially not to "make more money in a shorter time".

Second, you must spend a lot of time and energy to study and think. You must know who you are. What is the reason why you are really fit to invest? What is the most suitable investment method for you? To tell you the truth, I don't think everyone is suitable to invest, even if he does well in industry or has a high IQ. I sometimes even think that investment may be God's reward for a person with a particular character, values and way of thinking.

Third, a certain asset base is necessary. It can make you do not have to bear too much daily material pressure and strong anti-risk ability. Generally speaking, I prefer that if you have a 10% return on "fully investable funds" (the expected neutral annual return under a lower risk coefficient), it can provide at least 2 years' normal living expenses for your family (all expenses include, house, car, children, regular travel, etc., but excluding accidents and serious illness expenses, etc.), then a basic condition may be met. And the longer the year, the better.

But is it not impossible to fall below this base? I don't think so, but it may require more pressure (especially during the market downturn) and more effort and effort.

As for some specific techniques, such as how to achieve phased cash flow in a stable long-term investment cycle, these are trivial and simple. If my friends are interested, I will make some summaries for reference in the future. In more than 4 years of professional investment experience, nearly 2 years of imprint has been left on this blog.

Originally, this is only a professional retail investor's way of self-cultivation, but with more and more friends involved, it may also slowly record and gather a small segment of the investment process of many people. I hope that after many years, all the friends who have been destined to meet here will be able to find something valuable from our common road of investment and growth, and finally reap the world of our own.