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Tesla is near a record high. Wall Street says the stock is worth 100 times earnings

Tesla is near a record high. Wall Street says the stock is worth 100 times earnings

特斯拉接近紀錄高位。華爾街稱該股市盈率為100倍
Dow Jones Newswires ·  2022/01/04 09:52  · 市場

Al Root

Al根

$Tesla(TSLA.US)$ stock is poised to open above $1,200 a share, putting it close to its all-time high of $1,243.49. As the stock rises -- it soared by double digits on Monday -- expect more debate about how to value shares of the EV leader.

$特斯拉(TSLA.US)$該股開盤有望突破每股1,200美元,接近1,243.49美元的歷史高位。隨着股價上漲(週一飆升了兩位數),預計會有更多關於如何對這家電動汽車領軍企業的股票進行估值的辯論。

Wall Street, for its part, appears to believe the stock is worth roughly 100 times Tesla's per-share earnings. That is about 10 times more valuable than stocks of traditional auto makers, but it seems about right, based on one valuation methodology.

華爾街似乎認為,特斯拉股票的價值大約是其每股收益的100倍。這大約是傳統汽車製造商股票價值的10倍,但根據一種估值方法,這似乎是正確的。

In premarket trading on Tuesday, Tesla stock was up 0.6% at $1,206.95, while futures on the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were both up about 0.3%. The shares gained 13.5% on Monday after the company reported that it delivered more than 308,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter, roughly 15% more than the roughly 267,000 Wall Street expected.

在週二的盤前交易中,特斯拉股價上漲0.6%,至1206.95美元,而標準普爾500指數和道瓊斯工業平均指數期貨均上漲約0.3%。該公司股價週一上漲13.5%,此前該公司公佈,第四季度交付了超過30.8萬輛汽車,比華爾街預期的約26.7萬輛高出約15%。

At about $1,207 a share, and with about 1 billion shares outstanding, Tesla is valued at about $1.2 trillion -- an eye-popping valuation, especially for a car maker.

特斯拉的股價約為每股1,207美元,流通股約為10億股,估值約為1.2萬億美元,這一估值令人瞠目結舌,尤其是對於一家汽車製造商來説。

The price is about 130 times the relatively outdated Wall Street consensus forecast of about $9 a share in 2022 earnings. $Ford Motor(F.US)$, by comparison, is valued at about 11 times, while $General Motors(GM.US)$ is at about nine times.

這一價格是相對過時的華爾街普遍預測的約130倍,即2022年收益約為每股9美元。$福特汽車(F.US)$相比之下,它的估值約為11倍,而$通用汽車(GM.US)$大約是九倍。

Behind the gap is the fact that traditional car companies like Ford and GM haven't grown the way Tesla is expanding now in many generations. Tesla's delivery volumes rose about 87% in 2021.

在這種差距的背後,是福特和通用汽車等傳統汽車公司在過去幾代人中沒有像特斯拉那樣發展壯大。特斯拉2021年的交付量增長了約87%。

More deliveries at Tesla means more earnings. And as Wall Street has responded to Tesla's latest news on deliveries, disclosed Sunday, the consensus call on 2022 earnings has gone up by about 20 cents a share over the past couple of days. The average forecast for Tesla's stock price, meanwhile, has increased by about $20, to roughly $863 a share.

特斯拉交付的更多意味着更多的收益。隨着華爾街對特斯拉最新的交貨消息做出迴應,華爾街對2022年收益的普遍預期在過去幾天裏上漲了約每股20美分。與此同時,對特斯拉股價的平均預期增加了約20美元,達到每股863美元左右。

An increase of $20 in the target for the stock price for 20 additional cents in per-share earnings is a multiple of 100 times -- a rule of thumb investors can use in tackling the novel challenge of valuing a rapidly growing car company.

將目標股價提高20美元,每股收益增加20美分,是100倍的倍數--這條經驗法則可以用來應對對一家快速增長的汽車公司進行估值的新挑戰。

Simply plug in the consensus call for 2022 earnings estimates and multiply by 100. By that logic, to justify the $1,200 price Tesla would need to earn $12 a share in 2022. The current consensus estimate is $9, but the figure is based on part on forecasts that are out of date: Not every analyst raises estimates at the same rate, or in response to every tidbit of news.

只需輸入2022年收益預期的共識,然後乘以100即可。按照這種邏輯,要證明1200美元的價格是合理的,特斯拉在2022年需要每股盈利12美元。目前的普遍預期是9美元,但這個數字在一定程度上是基於過時的預測:並不是每個分析師都以同樣的速度上調預期,或者是對每條小道消息做出迴應。

Early this past year, analysts expected Tesla to earn about $4 a share in 2021, but the actual figure is likely to come in at more than $6. Earnings estimates rise when things are getting better, as they have been for Tesla lately.

去年年初,分析人士預計特斯拉2021年的每股收益約為4美元,但實際數字可能會超過6美元。情況好轉時,特斯拉的收益預期會上升,就像特斯拉最近的情況一樣。

The 2021 experience makes a per-share profit of $12 look possible. If Tesla hits that number, it would represent growth in earnings of roughly 100%. At a stock price of $1,200, the price/earnings ratio would be 100 times. Divide that by the growth rate, at 100%, and you get a price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio of about 1.

2021年的經歷使每股12美元的利潤看起來是可能的。如果特斯拉達到這一數字,將意味着收益增長約100%。以1200美元的股價計算,市盈率為100倍。將這一數字除以增長率(100%),你會得到大約1倍的市盈率。

There is no right PEG ratio: What figure makes sense depends on the company, the industry, and the growth rate. But a PEG of 1 isn't all that excessive. The PEG ratio of the Russell 1000 Growth Index is roughly 2 to 3 times.

沒有合適的PEG比率:什麼數字有意義取決於公司、行業和增長率。但是PEG為1並不是那麼過分。羅素1000增長指數的PEG比率約為2至3倍。

Whatever the multiple Tesla trades for, investors can be sure bulls and bears will debate it. Investors can also be sure that the stock will go higher if the company manages to keep beating delivery estimates by double-digit percentages, as it did in the fourth quarter.

無論多輛特斯拉的價格是多少,投資者都可以肯定,看漲和看跌的人都會就此展開辯論。投資者也可以肯定,如果該公司成功地以兩位數的百分比超過交付預期,就像第四季度那樣,股價將會走高。

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com

寫信給Al Root,地址是allen.root@dowjones.com

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