Original title: the "all-round surge" of US stocks is coming.

This article is edited by American Stock Research Society, author: Lijun

When it's time to meet with you at the weekend, the stock index has soared for a week as expected last weekend. I believe many friends have already felt that it has become unstoppable for US stocks to return to record highs again.

In our article last weekend, we mentioned a very important point, 'when retail investors are panicking, it must not be a signal that US stocks are going to collapse.' it can be said to be perfectly confirmed this week.

Looking back at the trend of this week, there was some panic in the market again on Monday because of the renewed blockade in the UK, but it did not fall below the support of the rising channel of the Nasdaq over the past year. Based on the experience of the past year, whenever the stock index falls on Monday, it will rise for most of the next four days, which is obviously a very good opportunity to increase positions.

After Monday's trading, Micron Technology Inc (MU.US) handed in an earnings report that far exceeded market expectations, surging 10.54 per cent on the day. Memory chips are widely used in automobiles, computers, mobile phones, data servers and other fields, which is a bellwether for the performance of technology companies, Micron Technology Inc's surge has also led to the overall market sentiment to be long technology stocks.

In the next three days, the three major stock indexes opened high and walked high, walking out of the three very strong positive lines, forming the shape of the "red three soldiers". The Nasdaq broke through the resistance line of the declining channel formed in the past month or so. S & P is only one step away from the all-time high, and the situation of doing long in an all-round way has been formed.

At present, from the technical form of Nasdaq futures, there is only one key resistance level above. This resistance level has not broken through several times before, and now it is only 16400 points away from this position. Once it breaks through, the bulls will become unstoppable.

Tesla, Inc. can be credited with regaining momentum in such a short period of time, rebounding nearly 20 per cent from $886to $1067 after stepping back on the bottom edge of the box on Monday. Tesla, Inc. 's strong recovery also led to a strong uptick in the stock index.

Is this a good sign? Of course, it's not. Tesla, Inc. soared this week mainly because Musk announced that the shares were almost sold out. In such a piece of news, there is no doubt that a giant with a market capitalization of nearly one trillion dollars can fluctuate so much that it has laid hidden worries for the future.

At present, the market has become so speculative that a single piece of news can often cause the stock index to rise and fall sharply. Stock index skyrocketing and plummeting, there are generally two possibilities: 1 institutions are washing the bargaining chips of retail investors in preparation for further violence; 2 the market is about to enter the final crazy stage, and the market will plummet after it reaches its peak quickly.

Now that the US stock bubble is unprecedented and the stock index is at such a high position, the first possibility is not to say no, but the second possibility, I think, is that everyone will think that it is more likely to happen, so we have to be vigilant.

The technical form of Nasdaq futures also implies the final result. the current market has obviously formed a diffusion triangle, and in the short term, it does have to attack the upper edge of the diffusion triangle, which corresponds to almost 17600, which translates to 16800, which is about 16800. There is still room to rise close to 1500 points.

On Monday, retail companies such as Amazon.Com Inc (AMZN.US) will release Christmas holiday sales figures, which is the key news whether the Nasdaq futures can exceed 16400. The United States is a consumer society, retail data can reflect the health of the entire economy, once exceeded expectations, consumption continues to grow, the market will once again be full of optimistic expectations for the earnings season.

In other words, as long as Monday's retail sales data exceed expectations, Nasdaq futures are bound to break through the resistance level of 16400. Once the breakthrough goes out, it will immediately force the market to rise. With the current crazy degree of the market, it may take only seven trading days to rise from 16400 to 17600.

Now is the last few trading days at the end of the year, generally there will be Windows Dressing effect, institutions will whitewash quarterly reports, resulting in the trend of the strong Hengqiang, now the strong are supergiants, so naturally can promote the stock index to further soar.

In response to the "Christmas market" of US stocks, Yale Hirsch, founder of the stock trader yearbook, created a statistical method called Santa Claus Rally, which is used to describe the growth rate of the stock market in the seven days before and after Christmas (the last two trading days of each year and the first two trading days of the new year). And such a name means that Santa Claus drives a sleigh and drives the stock market to rise continuously.

What are the chances that the Christmas market will open this year? Analysts at LPL Financial say there is a 78.9% chance that the s & p has moved higher in those seven trading days over the past 70 years. Judging from the historical data of nearly 20 years, no seven-day combination has a higher yield than the Santa Claus Rally. Even with data dating back to 1950, the average seven-day return on Christmas was 1.33%, the second-best seven-day combination of the year.

It is worth mentioning that Goldman Sachs Group analysts expect the recent pullback volatility in US stocks to reverse, mainly because more than $125 billion will flow into the stock market from January. The Christmas rally will push U. S. stocks to soar again, and the January effect will push them even higher.

If I were on Wall Street, what would be the best way to ship it now? In the run-up to the earnings season in mid-January, it seems like a way to maximise profits by pushing the index to an unimaginable new high, driving retail investors crazy and then taking advantage of the earnings season to achieve high-end shipments.

Of course, the market is about to enter the financing mode, and it is possible for Nasdaq futures to rise to 18000. You can understand that this is the last madness, so we need to gradually start reducing positions and hedging when we rise to around 17400.

The NASDAQ soared by about 1500 points, which is indeed a high level that many people can't imagine, but it will happen soon. What is the momentum of this rally? Let's go back to the point made in the article a few weeks ago, that is, the market is extremely clustered together.

The reason why this wave of stock index has momentum to reach a new high, mainly because after a period of institutional washing, they are more crazy to hold on to the giant, more money to buy the giant, the giant rose more. The weight of the giants is high, and if these companies rise casually, the index will take off naturally.

The index has been protected by the surge of supergiants this year, and TFAANMG has also risen like this now. It is a big question that the index will sprint to a new high before the end of the year and what to take to rise next year.

This trend of the market is basically to enjoy the last good time, and when the giant does not move, it is basically a full-scale collapse. Think of Adobe Inc (ADBE.US), the first technology giant to issue fourth-quarter results, and the performance growth rate slowed down significantly, and the stock price did not hold up.

Note one thing: the "giants" here are not only the seven TFAANMG giants that everyone is familiar with, but also traditional blue-chip consumer giants such as McDonald's Corp (MCD.US), The Home Depot Inc (HD.US) and Nike Inc (NKE.US). The so-called giant refers to large companies that can beat inflation, have low valuations, have stable profitability and have a market capitalization of more than $100 billion.

Nike Inc is the most representative company reflecting the "extreme hugging group". The company's latest performance growth rate was only 1% in the latest quarter, revenue in Greater China plummeted 20%, and next year is expected to grow in low single digits. Unexpectedly, at one point, the financial results jumped by nearly 10% on the same day.

At present, Nike Inc's price-to-earnings ratio is as high as 44. With such a low growth rate, he still faces weak consumption, supply chain crisis and geopolitical risks in the future. How on earth can he support the current high valuation? I think there is only one answer: the final madness.

The market has expected that the performance of most companies next year will not only fail to achieve growth, but will most likely decline. At this time, even if Nike Inc can only maintain low single-digit growth, he is still favored by the market.

Adobe Inc's performance storm has sounded a wake-up call to the market. The earnings season that begins in mid-January will be risky. The market has already priced the performance of technology stocks perfectly. Under such a high position, corporate transcripts must be flawless, otherwise there is a high probability that valuations will be destroyed.

In the long run, at least the economy is still growing this year. In the United States, consumption has grown well because of subsidies, and money is still loose, but growth stocks have been slaughtered by valuations, and many growth stocks have halved.

The economic growth rate will slow sharply next year, and the GDP growth rate of the United States in the third quarter is only 2.3%, indicating that water discharge has no effect on economic growth, and it will not be possible to issue subsidies like this year immediately. Americans will certainly not be able to keep up with their consumption in the future, inflation will continue to burst, and the economy will most likely enter stagflation.

At this time, the Federal Reserve will have to raise interest rates and tighten monetary policy, and there is a good chance that the growth rate of corporate performance will slow down again. This year is just the valuation of being killed, and next year it will be a Davis double kill.

The current market, the giant can continue to rise, after all, the results have not yet been announced. If the results are not announced, then hype according to the best expectations: Tesla, Inc. will occupy 80% of the market share of new energy electric vehicles; Apple Inc (AAPL.US)'s VR and automotive business will contribute $300 billion in revenue over the next five years; Microsoft Corp's enterprise services business can always maintain high growth; chips will never be affected by the economic cycle.

Whether the above expectations are too optimistic, or excessive hype, these are not the current concern of the market, after all, it will take the end of January to answer. Us stocks have always been like this, before the emergence of bad, it is all good news, we can do, that is to comply with the trend.

There is no doubt that the risk of US stocks next year is huge. after all, when the giant does not move, the high probability of greeting us should be a full-scale collapse, and the second-tier growth stocks will be valued again next year, and this time they are expected to be killed in the dark. It's going to be worse than this year.

The current second-tier growth stocks driven by the market, once again ushered in a strong rebound, but we should be clear that this is only a dead cat jump. So our strategy now is very simple, that is to hold on to the giant.

1 the market is about to pull back, reduce the position, and only retain the position of the giant. Even if it falls, it won't go anywhere. The market is fluctuating, keeping half of the cash and half of the positions to buy giants. During the market shock, the giants can still outperform the market. 3 the market is going to soar, it is still a buying giant, but it will buy some giant call options, although the option leverage is high, but the risk is far lower than the second-tier growth stocks, as a result, it still earns more.

The final conclusion is summed up in one sentence: hold on to the giant!