The year 2022 will be an inflection point for the EV industry, given the stage is set for massive consumer demand, an analyst at Wedbush said.
Global EV Penetration to Increase By 60% In 2022:
Although the chip shortage remains a lingering overhang on the EV industry, the impact will be moderated in the next three months, analyst Daniel Ives said in a note. Supply constraints will likely move from a headwind into a tailwind for the overall EV sector in 2022, he added.
The analyst sees an unprecedented conversion to EVs, as more consumers are attracted to the innovative designs, improved battery technology, lower price points, and the environmental backdrop of buying an EV.
EVs, which currently account for only 3% of autos globally, will likely reach 5% of vehicles by 2022 and 10% by 2025, Ives said.
Tesla To Take A Bigger Chunk Of The Pie:
Of the $5 trillion green tidal waves of EV spending expected over the next decade, about $2.5 trillion is $Tesla(TSLA.US)$ to own, as the EV maker has an iron grip on the market, the analyst said.
The other $2.5 trillion is up for grabs among 100+ OEMs, Ives said. The EV industry isn't likely to be a "zero-sum game," and instead there will be a slew of winners, he added.
On the OEM front, Tesla is in pole position to expand its capacity and exceed 50% year-over-year unit demand growth in 2022, the analyst said.
Rivian Set to Create New Category In EV Space:
$Rivian Automotive(RIVN.US)$ is in a very strong competitive position on the EV consumer luxury front and is focusing its efforts on the execution of the R1T and R1S scheduled for deliveries in 2022, Ives said.
The company is the world's first EV SUV/pickup/outdoor vehicle brand and has more than $10 billion in funding before going public, with $Amazon(AMZN.US)$ and $Ford Motor(F.US)$ as major investors, the analyst noted.
Rivian already has 48,000 pre-orders for their R1 platform, in addition to 100,000 Amazon initial orders for their last-mile delivery vehicles, he added.
"Rivian is set to create a new category in the EV space with its game-changing debuts, a massive Normal, Illinois factory footprint, and create a major brand within the EV market over the next decade," Ives said in the note.
GM Has A Golden EV Opportunity:
Looking past near-term issues, including the chip crunch and the Bolt recall, $General Motors(GM.US)$ has a golden opportunity to ultimately convert 20% of its massive customer base to EVs by 2026 and north of 50% by 2030, Ives said.
The green tidal wave and EV conversion opportunities will change the long-term growth trajectory at GM over the next decade, with overall revenue set to double by 2030, the analyst said.
In a bull case scenario, GM's stock could hit $100 over the next 12 to 18 months as the EV vision under CEO Mary Barra begins to take shape and markedly ramp up, he added.