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港股迎配置良机?央行发声,机构看多,恒指明年或上28000点

Hong Kong stocks welcome a good opportunity for allocation? The central bank says that institutions are bullish, and the Hang Seng Index may go up to 28000 points next year.

Moomoo News ·  Dec 11, 2021 01:11

At present, the Hong Kong stock market is at the bottom. With the voice of the central bank and bullish institutions, the best time for allocation may have come quietly.

The central bank declares that it will, as always, support the construction of an international financial centre in Hong Kong.

Yi Gang, governor of the people's Bank of China, said in a speech at the joint seminar on "Hong Kong's status and prospects as an international financial center" on December 9 that looking ahead, Hong Kong's international financial center construction has both opportunities and challenges. The people's Bank of China will, as always, support the construction of an international financial center in Hong Kong.

'We will continue to optimize various financial market connectivity mechanisms to better meet the needs of investors, 'Mr. Yi said. Hong Kong can continue to improve its financial market services and consolidate its leading position in the global financial market. Hong Kong plays an important role in the process of RMB internationalization. Mechanisms such as Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Bond Link and Cross-border Finance Link can be used as a starting point to expand the RMB-denominated product system and improve risk management tools.

Chen Yulu, deputy governor of the people's Bank of China, also said that she will give full play to Hong Kong's advantages in global asset management and risk management, support Hong Kong's better participation in the construction of Belt and Road Initiative and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, and at the same time, seize the opportunity of global financial and technological development and tackling climate change to deepen cooperation between the mainland and Hong Kong in deeper and wider fields.

The upsurge of "backflow" of Chinese stocks may continue to speed up.

Prior to this, the regulatory wrangling between China and the United States over Chinese-listed stocks triggered concerns about the delisting of Chinese-listed stocks. The transfer to Hong Kong for listing may become the best choice for enterprises in the new economy.

In this regard, Li Xiaojia, former chief executive of the HKEx and member of the CPPCC National Committee, believes that in the short term, it will have a local impact on Hong Kong stocks and benefit acquired institutions. Li Xiaojia said that in the long run, Hong Kong's role is to get the world to embrace China. We have to understand that opportunities come from China, that capital flows to China, and that Hong Kong's role is to serve as a platform to "make people on both sides happy and not fight" before they can develop.

Yu Weiwen, chief executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, also said that global capital flows continue to flow into assets related to the mainland economy, and no foreign investors are worried about the issue of Chinese stocks, and it is believed that international capital inflows will continue. He pointed out that Hong Kong had always been a good bridge to connect the mainland and international markets or investors, and had the conditions to expand and deepen connectivity, improve the sales process of cross-border LiCaiTong and launch products conducive to risk management.

KPMG recently released a review of the IPO market in mainland China and Hong Kong in the fourth quarter of 2021. According to the report, the initial public offering in the mainland A-share market this year is expected to involve 495 transactions, with a total fund-raising expected to reach a new high of 565 billion yuan. Hong Kong continues to be a hot choice for IPO. At the same time, Hong Kong is expected to record about 110 listings this year, raising a total of HK $356 billion, while the total number of new listings from the mainland and Hong Kong accounts for 25 per cent of the world's total.

In 2022, Hong Kong stocks ushered in a "search for self-confidence" rise, and the Hang Seng Index is expected to touch 30000 points.

1) Blackrock: now is a good opportunity to build positions in China's stock market, especially in favor of growth stocks.

Blackrock, the world's largest asset regulator, is cutting back on its investment in the Indian stock market and is more optimistic about the Chinese stock market because of its attractive valuations. "valuation is the key now," said Belinda Boa, head of active investment in the Asia-Pacific region of Blackrock. "compared to India's performance this year, we are beginning to make a profit in the Chinese stock market and are more optimistic about Chinese growth stocks. "

It is reported that Blackrock has readjusted his Asia-focused portfolio, reduced his position in Chinese stocks from neutral to neutral, and reduced his expectations for Internet service companies to reduce their holdings.

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2) Societe Generale Securities: Hong Kong stocks "looking for self-confidence" recovery rise in 2022

Zhang Yidong, chief global strategist at Societe Generale Securities, predicts that Hong Kong stocks are "looking for a confident" recovery in 2022, and the Hang Seng Index is expected to touch 30,000 points.

First, with the mitigation of real estate risks in the mainland, the valuations of inner housing stocks and bank stocks in the Hang Seng Index in 2022 are expected to be repaired.

Secondly, the industrial policy environment of the Internet has been improved and the attractiveness of the configuration has been enhanced. The Internet, as the mainstay of Hong Kong stocks, is "regulated" in 2021 and "developed in the norm" in 2022, with a short-term valuation performance-to-price ratio highlighted.

Third, local heavyweights in Hong Kong and Macao benefit from customs clearance in the short term and wealth management in China in the long run.

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3) BoCom International Hong Hao: Hong Kong stocks have a good chance of outperforming the global index next year, and are optimistic about the three major sectors.

Hong Hao, managing director and head of research of BoCom International, said that the current valuation is lower than that in March last year, and after a year and a half of recovery, he believes that the economy will not be worse than last year. If customs clearance between the mainland and Hong Kong is carried out, it will obviously help Hong Kong's economy. The situation will not be worse than that of last year. At present, the market reflects the market panic to a large extent, saying that "the bottom is the most dangerous and can not be found." instead of finding the bottom, it is better to extend the investment line of sight. To tolerate short-term fluctuations and be bullish on Internet, consumer and energy stocks.

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4) CICC: Hong Kong stocks are in the layout area, waiting for the catalyst

CICC said that recently, US stocks have become more volatile and risks have been released, and China's stable growth policy may gradually become effective, which also makes Hong Kong stocks gradually have a marginal positive catalyst. we have a positive attitude towards the performance of Hong Kong stocks in the next 12 months. pay attention to overseas markets and China's steady growth policy progress to gradually layout.

CICC also pointed out that the emotional level is already extremely pessimistic. The current market sentiment is similar to the period from the end of 18 years to the beginning of 19 years. Hong Kong stock market liquidity has dried up, and IPO issuance has also encountered a lot of pressure. Superimposed by this sharp fall in Chinese stocks, according to historical experience, it has reached a state of extreme pessimism.

The valuation of the core target has entered a reasonable range. Since the beginning of this year, after a sharp decline, the valuation of Hong Kong pharmaceutical stocks has entered a reasonable range, and the ratio of performance to price has been gradually improved. It is reasonable for Hong Kong stocks to have a certain premium over pure American stocks as a whole, because China's clinical difficulty is still lower than that of US stocks, and the supply is relatively scarce, so it can have a certain premium.

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5) Jianyin International: Hong Kong stocks are expected to usher in a window for valuation repair.

Zhao Wenli, chief strategist at CCB International, said, "the stability and visibility of policies next year are expected to be better than this year. Industries that are more affected by policies this year should have a much weaker marginal impact on policies next year than this year." "

After a painful year, it is believed that Hong Kong stocks will see a "dawn" in the first half of next year and is expected to usher in a window for valuation repair. It is expected that the Hang Seng Index will fluctuate in a range of 22000 to 28600 points, the national index in a range of 7600 to 10,500 points, and the S & I index in a range of 5800 to 7500 points.

6) UBS is also bullish on the trend of Hong Kong stocks in 2022, with an expected return of 7%, 13% and a target of 27000 points for the Hang Seng Index.

UBS expects Hong Kong stocks to return 7 per cent in 2022, 13 per cent, the MSCI Hong Kong index and the Hang Seng index are targeted at 12400 and 27000, respectively.

UBS said that the resumption of customs clearance between Hong Kong and the mainland is expected to boost the recovery of some corporate profits. Hong Kong bank stocks, customs clearance beneficiary stocks and high dividend yield stocks will outperform the market in 2022 amid slowing growth, tighter liquidity and rising real yields. Macau gaming stocks and Hong Kong retail stocks are bullish.

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