Morgan Stanley raised its price target on Apple stock, sending the shares higher Tuesday.
Analyst Katy Huberty hiked her price target to $200 from $164 and maintained an Overweight rating on the stock. Huberty sees a major upside over the next year as the tech giant approaches the launch of an augmented reality product.
In conversations with venture-backed AR/VR companies, the consensus view is that the real catalyst for mass-market AR/VR adoption will come when Apple enters the market,"
-Huberty wrote in a research note on Tuesday.
Huberty's analysis indicates that an AR/VR product could generate $29 billion in revenue by 2026. For comparison, the company generated $20 billion in revenue the first year after launching the iPad. She estimates that over the last five years about 6% of Apple's (ticker: AAPL) revenue, on average, has come from products or services that didn't exist five years prior.
Apple shares were up 3.2% to $170.59 Tuesday. The stock has gained nearly 30% this year.
In addition to the long-term virtual reality upstreams, Huberty is foreseeing strong growth in the short term. The analyst is predicting higher December iPhone shipments, increasing her estimate by 3 million units to a total of 83 million units. This drives her forecast for 2022 first-quarter revenue 2% higher to $122.3 billion.
Another upside for the stock is growing revenue across its services segment, Huberty said. While investors were skeptical of Apple's ability to monetize services five years ago, the segment now brings in nearly $70 billion annually, doubling over the last four years, she wrote.
App Store revenue grew 14% year over year in November despite its legal controversies. Apple has been ordered to make changes to its App Store that would allow developers to add links to external payment options starting Dec. 9, a move that could cut into sales. The company appealed the motion, but even if it is unsuccessful, Huberty doesn't see a risk in the short term.
We don't see meaningful App Store revenue impact near-term as it will take time for consumer behavior to shift toward direct purchases through developer websites."
-she wrote.
Write to Sabrina Escobar at sabrina.escobar@barrons.com
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