Overnight, global markets collapsed: oil prices fell more than 7%, Hong Kong stocks fell 2.67%, Japanese stocks fell 2.67%, European stocks fell 4%, and US Dow futures fell more than 2%. The VIX panic index soared 40%.

The reason behind it:Botswana, South Africa and other countries recently reported a new variant novel coronavirus, which is named B.1.1.529.

It is reported that the virus evolved from an old variant of the virus B.1.1 and first spread from Botswana.The new variety contains a total of more than 50 mutations, of which there are more than 30 mutations in spike protein alone, which is the most mutated COVID-19 variant virus so far, and its infectivity and anti-vaccine ability far exceed that of Delta mutant.World Health Organization (WHO) paid close attention to this and will hold a special meeting on Friday local time to formally discuss the strain.

According to Bloomberg, before the special meeting, a spokesman for WHO said that the mutated virus was first discovered on Nov. 11, and the rate of discovery of the mutated virus was very fast.

Governments around the world have reacted quickly to the menacing South African mutated virus.On Thursday, November 25, local time, Britain put South Africa on the "blacklist" of tourism. Israel, Singapore and other countries have also followed suit.

The strength of the virus heightened investors' concerns about the future economy, so risk aversion rose rapidly on Friday, as investors began to sell risky assets and rush to safe havens.

Investors are worriedIf the new variant is really many times more ferocious than Delta, the main line of global recovery could be interrupted.

1. The new virus may mutate from AIDS patients, and the existing vaccine may not be effective.

Soumya Swaminathan, chief scientist of World Health Organization (WHO), said that this new variation "There are many worrying mutations in spike proteins.”。

Spike protein is not only the key that viruses use to open the doors of our body cells, but also the target of most vaccines.

But it may be too early to worry too much.Due to insufficient knowledge of the strain, World Health Organization (WHO) will hold a special meeting on Friday local time to formally discuss the variant and determine its level of attention.In a previous statement, the World Health Organization said:

"early analysis shows that there are a large number of mutations in this variation and further research is needed and will be carried out."

The question of how the virus came into being has not been decided yet.But,Considering that South Africa is the largest concentration of AIDS patients in the world, some scientists have given their own speculation.

According to Bloomberg, a scientist at the Institute of Genetics at University College London believesConsidering that there are more than 8.2 million people living with AIDS in South Africa.，The variant virus may have mutated in untreated AIDS patients.

This degree of mutation is likely to come from a single infected person, and the patient failed to defeat the virus after infection.

Of course, a large number of mutations does not necessarily mean that it is bad news, and follow-up research on these mutations is still very important.

However, the British BBC said that this new variant of the virus is very different from the previous mainstream version of the global epidemic, which may mean that the existing vaccine will not work against it.

two。 The speed of spread is faster, and the government response is faster.

As of ThursdayNearly 100 cases have been found in South Africa, and the variant has become the main strain of new infections.

At a media briefing yesterday, Tulio de Oliveira, a professor of global health at the University of Washington, said that according to early PCR tests, about 90 per cent of the 1100 new cases in South Africa on Wednesday could have been caused by the variant.

Previously, after genome sequencing and other genetic analysis, the Tulio de Oliveira team found that all 77 virus samples collected from Gauteng province between November 12 and 20 were caused by B.1.1.529 mutations. In addition, the analysis of hundreds of samples is still in progress.

The spread of the virus is not to be underestimated, and it first appeared in Hong Kong, China, on November 25. After genome sequencing at the University of Hong Kong, two B.1.1.529 coronavirus variants were recorded in Hong Kong. Among them, one tourist arrived from South Africa this month, another tourist from Canada, they are on the same floor of the same quarantined hotel.

In order to prevent the heavy blow to the economy caused by the resurgence of the epidemic, governments around the world have responded quickly and made responses one after another.

On November 26th, British Health Secretary Sajid Javid announced a temporary ban on flights from South Africa and its five neighboring countries; Singapore announced restrictions on entry to South Africa and its neighboring countries in the past 14 days; and Israel took action on Thursday night. Hirohiro Matano, chief cabinet secretary, said on Friday that the Japanese government was collecting information that "if the situation deteriorates and the infection spreads, then the government will respond quickly".

3. Market reaction: difficulties in economic recovery intensify, risk aversion is heating up rapidly

As mentioned earlier, there are 32 mutated South African mutants on the spike protein, which are far more powerful than the previous most powerful Delta mutants. therefore,Scientists are increasingly worried about its strong anti-vaccine ability and the speed of transmission.

As more and more investors learn about the virus, fears of economic recovery and panic about financial markets are rapidly simmering in the market.

Taking into account the previous experience of governments in dealing with the epidemicIf the vaccine is almost ineffective against the mutant, response policies such as blockade and quarantine could deal a heavy blow to consumer activity and exacerbate a supply chain problem that limits industrial output, fraught with thorns on the road to world economic recovery.Even if the vaccine has a significant effect on the virus, shipping and tourism will be hit by the government's short-term control measures.

In additionThe central banks of developed countries, which released water during the COVID-19 epidemic, have no room for monetary policy in the environment of record-breaking inflation and large fluctuations in interest rates.

Nowadays, the market risk is increasing.Many Wall Street analysts believe that they are now in a situation"the most unconventional cycle", "very unlikely to follow the conventional path", the market is likely to usher in the "interest rate shock" in the near future.

In this contextThe attack of mutated virus added fuel to the fire.Cause the market panic to intensify.。Reflected in the quantitative indicators, it has been going higher since November 16.The Cboe volatility Index (VIX) soared today. As of press time, the VIX volatility index is up 36 per cent.

Against this backdrop, investors are moving quickly, even though little is known about the details of the variant. Strong risk aversion has pushed up US Treasuries and the yen, which are traditional safe havens; by contrast, risky assets have performed poorly.Asian and US stock futures were dragged down by risk aversion and the fall in crude oil, with the South African rand falling to its lowest level in a year.

1) risky assets are sold off

Against the backdrop of a new variant of the virus, investors reacted quickly, with global futures and Asian airline stocks and tourism stocks being the first to be affected.

As of press time, the world's major stock index futures have fallen.

The three major US stock index futures fell one after another, with Dow Jones Index futures down 2.18%, S & P 500 stock index futures down 1.71% and Nasdaq 100 stock index futures down nearly 1%.

Affected by this, the A-share aviation sector did not perform well today, with Huaxia Airlines down 2.48%, Spring and Autumn Airlines down 1.48% and China Southern Airlines Company down 1.38%.

At the same time, before OPEC+ holds a new round of meetings next week to discuss production plansThe pressure of a resurgence of the epidemic has dealt a severe blow to confidence in energy demand, leading to a collapse in oil prices today.

As of press time, Brent crude fell 5.65% to $76.35 / barrel, while WTI crude fell 6.79% to $73.07 / barrel.

2) safe-haven assets are very popular

As a safe haven, 10-year bonds of major countries around the world rose sharply today.

As of press time, the yield on the two-year US Treasury note fell 15 basis points to 0.491 per cent, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, the benchmark for global bonds, fell 12 basis points to 1.521 per cent.

In addition, due to the influence of the mutated virus, traders bet that the European Central Bank would cut interest rate increases, and German 10-year bond yields continued to fall 7 basis points to-0.321% in the case of negative interest rates; 10-year bond yields in China, the UK, Japan and other countries also fell.

In additionAs a traditional safe haven asset, the Japanese yen is very popular today.The exchange rate against all major currencies rose one after another.