By Jeremy C. Owens
Earnings Watch: Pfizer and Moderna among more than 160 S&P 500 companies expected to report in the coming week, along with ride-hail companies, videogame makers and much more
U.S. pharmaceutical companies are expected to collect more revenue from COVID-19 vaccines in the third quarter than they did in the entire first half of the year, and that money should continue to grow.
In the first half of the year, Pfizer Inc. (PFE) and Moderna Inc. (MRNA) reported collective sales of $17.2 billion for their vaccines, but both are expected to report higher third-quarter totals in the coming week, a collective $18 billion. Pfizer is scheduled to report earnings Tuesday morning, while Moderna follows on Thursday morning, after Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)reported last week more than $500 million in third-quarter sales, nearly double the $264 million it collected in the first half.
Pfizer collected revenue of $11.3 billion in the first half of the year from its COVID-19 vaccine, now known as Comirnaty, and analysts project third-quarter sales of $11.86 billion. Those numbers could be a bit high, however, as some sales could get pushed into the fourth quarter, when booster shots and the newly authorized vaccine for younger children begin landing in arms.
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Mizuho analysts wrote earlier this month that Pfizer might struggle to put up more than $10 billion in third-quarter COVID-19 vaccine sales, though the missing revenue would likely just be pushed into the fourth quarter instead.
"Comirnaty sales have driven remarkable upside to Pfizer numbers in 1Q21 and 2Q21, but for 3Q21 we believe consensus estimates are currently too high based on orders Pfizer has publicly announced and government websites that track actual COVID vaccine shipments," wrote the analysts, who have a neutral rating and $43 price target on Pfizer stock. "Our FY21 Comirnaty sales estimates are unchanged, however, as we shift revenues from 3Q21 to 4Q21, while awaiting further clarity on order trends and uptake on the conference call."
Moderna on average is expected to report vaccine sales of $6.17 billion in the third quarter, after collecting $5.93 billion in the first half. The vaccine is more important financially to Moderna, because it is the first approved product for the younger pharmaceutical company, but the company faces a potential delay in its own product aimed at children after a setback over the weekend.
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Any forecasts or color from executives on fourth-quarter and 2022 expectations will also be important, as analysts are predicting more than $21 billion in fourth-quarter revenue from Moderna and Pfizer alone. Production capacities will be an interesting topic as well, with the companies rolling out boosters and doses for younger patients while still attempting to protect people worldwide from the pandemic.
Moderna and Pfizer are two of 167 S&P 500 companies expected to report this week, a similar number to last week as the peak of earnings season continues. Here is what to expect in the week ahead.
The numbers to watch
The conference calls to put on your calendar
This week in earnings
While 167 S&P 500 companies are expected to report, according to FactSet Senior Earnings Analyst John Butters, it will be a much slower week for the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average . Only one Dow component is on the schedule, with Amgen Inc. (AMGN) scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.
The action is hotter for companies not in the major indexes, such as vacation-rental company Airbnb Inc. (ABNB), which reports Thursday afternoon, the same day as online-travel rival Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE) and a day after Booking Inc. (BKNG). Young tech companies that can show volatile reactions to earnings, like Roku Inc. (ROKU), Pinterest Inc. (PINS) and Fastly Inc. (FSLY) are also on the schedule.
-Jeremy C. Owens