Since the beginning of this year, the performance of consumer and pharmaceutical sectors has been bleak, and anxiety about the withdrawal of net worth has spread among investors.

However, in the investment, no one can guarantee to make money every year and every month, and the results of short-term evaluation do not make much sense. Even if Buffett, the god of stock, has earned as much as 30,000 times in the past 50 years, he cannot make a positive return every year. Buffett had the experience of halving his net worth between 1973 and 1974.

People can only earn their own ability circle of money, the market is always not on their side, can bear loneliness before there is a harvest. It is unrealistic to hope that your stock will rise year after year and surpass all other industries and hot spots all the time.

There was a video that was widely circulated: in a game in which participants want to catch gifts that fall randomly from above, an aunt stands still and waits, easily receiving gifts that fall from the top twice. While a doctor scrambles to grab all the gifts and keeps running to where the gifts are falling, ironically, the doctor gets nothing at the end of the game.

The reason is very simple, this game is very much like investment. The pursuit of short-term results will inevitably lead to investors who constantly look at the market and may end up earning very little. As Jesse Livermore has a sensible motto in the Memoirs of Stock Marketeers: "to make a lot of money depends on your strength, not your head." Few people can sit upright and make the right judgment. "

Buffett's net worth halved.

Even the best investors will inevitably suffer a huge net worth retreat. the trend of the market is a collection of emotions of group participants, which will wander irregularly between panic and greed.

In the 1970s, the fiscal deficit of the United States increased greatly, the inflation was high, and the economy entered the downward channel, and the oil crisis brought about by the war aggravated the market panic. The S & P 500 fell 48.2 per cent from a peak of 120.24 in January 1973 to a low of 62.28 in October 1974. Buffett's net worth retreated by 48.7% in 1974, based on a 2.5% rebound in 1973. That means Buffett halved his net worth between 1973 and 1974.

But Buffett will not question the ineffectiveness of the value investment approach because of the huge reversal of net worth. Instead, he told Forbes in November 1974: "I feel like a very lecherous young man has come to my daughter's country, and the time has come to invest." "

Buffett also said at the time: "you are dealing with a lot of idiots in the market." It's like being in a big casino where everyone else is drinking. If you can still keep drinking your own Coke, you will be all right. "

Buffett's famous saying "the market is a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long run" comes from this pessimistic moment in 1974.

When Forbes asked: what if the market never realized it was a cheap stock? What if the stock market can never return to normal value?

Buffett replied, "when I was working at Graham Newman, I asked my then boss Graham the same question." Graham shrugged and replied that the market will eventually achieve value. He is right-the market is a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long run. "

Buffett also said that some people can become successful investors because they hold on to successful companies, and sooner or later the market will reflect the value of the enterprise.

Short-term performance evaluation is meaningless.

If you count from 1965, in the 56 years of Buffett's investment, the net worth has retreated in eight years. Apart from the 50 per cent rebound in net worth between 1973 and 1974, Mr Buffett's net worth retreated by as much as 31.8 per cent during the subprime crisis in 2008 and 19.9 per cent before the bursting of the dotcom bubble in 1999.

Short-term performance evaluation does not make much sense. Investment is a game that looks at the overall situation. Duan Yongping also said that investment is a bit like playing golf, 18 holes, it is not important to play a good hole, because golf ultimately depends on the whole score, not the performance of a particular hole.

If you look at the overall situation, Buffett has made 30,000 times the return on his investment over the past 50 years, worthy of the title of stock god. But if Buffett's portfolio withdrew nearly 20% from 1999 alone, when the Nasdaq index rose 86%, it's no wonder Barron Weekly published the famous article "Warren, what's the matter with you?" "

When the market atmosphere is warm, value investors will basically lose out in the market. As a result, Buffett said in a letter to shareholders as early as 1965, "We have done well or bad, we cannot be measured by our profits and losses in a given year." Evaluation should look at five years, at least three years, less than three years of performance is meaningless. Our partnership fund must have lagged behind the Dow, or even lagged far behind. The long-term return on investment will be at its peak if it exceeds the Dow by 10 percentage points, so please adjust some of the above figures in your mind. "

Many well-known investors in A-shares have 10 or even 20 years of long-term excellent performance. Since the beginning of this year, sectors such as medicine, food and beverages have retreated sharply, and core assets, value investments and these investors have been ridiculed. In fact, if we investors only use the results of a few quarters to evaluate their performance, it is that our understanding of investment has not yet entered the room. If we can understand the simple truth that the market often deviates from the fundamentals of listed companies and invest in the capacity circle with long-term money, there will be no anxiety in the face of a market recession.

In the short term, the value of stocks will be submerged in market noise. The global super growth stock "catcher" Baiji Investment has successfully invested in companies such as Tesla, Inc., ASML Holding NV, Amazon.Com Inc and Alphabet Inc-CL C. The asset manager of this century-old "brand" believes that in the short term, there is not a close relationship between a company's stock price and its fundamentals, and signals of progress or problems are drowned out in the noise.

Because of this, Baiji Investment further believes that real investors consider investing in terms of ten years, because only after a long time can the signal be translated into a clear picture. The huge opportunities seized by the most successful companies will eventually show the strongest share price gains.

As Hu Weitao, chairman of Wanli Fidelity, said, "everyone should earn money in the circle of power. If they want to make money all the time, they really think they are gods." The pursuit of good year after year and every day, judging a hero in terms of short-term success or failure, may eventually become a bear. "

Great investors have come out. Although they have been under heavy pressure from the market this year, many investors who have stood the test of time have shown the resilience that value investment should have, and being able to endure is a necessary quality of good investors.

After halving his net worth from 1973 to 1974, Buffett achieved an investment return of 129.3% in 1976 and 102.5% in 1979. By 1980, Buffett not only came out of the shadow of net worth, but also quadrupled his net worth since 1972.

Munger said that our generation, our group of people who make value investments, which one does not come out, stick to it, do not even have to be smart.