作为市场周期理论的坚定信奉者，马克斯表示，通常情况下，股票市场和经济周期相一致，当股票市场处于高位时，经济也处于高位，反之亦然。但今天股票价格高，经济却处于周期早期：Howard Marks, co-founder of Oak Capital, said in a recent interview that everything is in a bubble and that the Fed should not miss the opportunity to let interest rates rise again because of "curtailing panic".
In a televised interview with Bloomberg on Thursday, Max pointed out that the U.S. stock market, real estate and other industries are very strong, but the returns are very low:
The stock market is at a high, with the S & P around 4400. Looking back at March last year, the S & P doubled to 2200. The real estate industry has recovered, and some industries are very strong, such as infrastructure, real estate, distribution centers and so on. We live in a world of low returns. This is the lowest expected rate of return we have ever seen.
As a staunch believer in market cycle theory, Max says that in general, the stock market is consistent with the economic cycle, and when the stock market is high, the economy is high, and vice versa. But today, with high stock prices, the economy is in the early stages of the cycle:
This is unusual. This is bad, you might say, because the recovery has just begun and share prices are already high.
Max believes that the Fed should not intervene in the market and "move the glass" appropriately so that interest rates can fluctuate in the way the economy and participants want, not what the Fed wants.
Max pointed out that the Fed had missed an opportunity to raise interest rates in 2018 and held back in the face of falling markets, but this time the Fed should not miss the opportunity to get interest rates back up again for fear of "tapering panic":
Just like your child. As parents, we should not be afraid of our children losing their temper. The Fed cannot be afraid of investor anger. The Fed must do the right thing for the economy. Its job is not to make money for investors. When the economy is strong, you have to stop emergency measures and get interest rates back up.
Max believes that the current environment is very unfriendly to institutional investment, and pension funds and many other institutional investors rely on 7% annual returns, but this is impossible with the federal funds rate at zero:
Expected returns in the credit markets are now at an all-time low. It is possible to make more money than investing in US Treasuries, but this is becoming more and more difficult.
Comment(3)
moomoo棒极了
这大哥买uvxy了吧
那是不是預期股市可以走得更高？
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