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US Treasury yields dropped surprisingly; What do analysts think of the market?

Moomoo News ·  Jul 9, 2021 09:18  · Exclusive

US stock market retreated on Thursday

The $S&P 500 index(.SPX.US)$ fell as much as 1.6% on Thursday, the most since May, as all major industries slipped. Just last week, the S&P 500 rose to record for its seventh straight session, a feat not seen since 1997. The benchmark has gone without a peak-to-trough decline of 5% for eight months, the longest stretch since 2018.

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Moreover, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose surprisingly. 

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As investors, we could be wondering whether to be more cautious or continue to invest in equities? Here's what analysts think of the situation.

Analysts' opinions

Run for the bond market?

  • The bond market will definitely influence the stock market.

In our view, the bond market is the big brother of the equity market. And when the big brother does something the little brother follows, no questions asked. If we are to believe economic momentum can only cool from the current pace, investors need to determine how much should you pay for an economy returning to a normal glide path. And, instead of paying 22x 2021 SPX earnings or 20x 2022 earnings, perhaps the right value is 18x.

-Adrian Miller, chief market strategist at Concise Capital Management LP

  • The peak in growth/inflation numbers could signal the shift from positive surprises to negative surprises.

The S&P is up 16% this year so certainly a giveback on the equities side is to be expected but on the bond side the narrative of inflation driven by labor shortages and product shortages subdued economic growth globally may be ratcheting down expectations and that is deflationary. I look at the ten-year and I think growth could be a little bit less than what we thought.  I'm going to believe the bond market before I believe people saying there is going to be inflation.

-Josh Wein, porfolio manager at Hennessy Funds

Stay in the stock market?

  • The pullback brings opportunity.

I'm still of the opinion this is a head fake and that we will see higher rates ahead, with the strong GDP growth and corporate earnings growth -- we've stimulated this economy so well and the path for Covid, even though we have these blips, is toward normalcy. I would take advantage of the things going on in the marketplace right now. Like the travel-related stocks, I think they will come back. This is maybe one of the last opportunities to get on that bandwagon if you missed it.

-Chris Harvey, head of equity strategy at Wells Fargo

So what about you? Comment below to discuss with other moomooers.

Source: Bloomberg

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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Comment(7)

  • user-avatar

    nice. but what is contributing to the rise though?

    Jul 9, 2021 10:44
  • user-avatar

    well I tend to side with bankers an i believe economic growth will out way inflation fears. let's gooooooo

    Jul 9, 2021 10:58
  • user-avatar

    Buy all the dips you can n hold them longterm

    Jul 9, 2021 10:59
  • user-avatar

    Great.

    Jul 9, 2021 16:13
  • user-avatar

    welly $Welltower Inc (WELL.US)$

    Jul 9, 2021 16:14
  • user-avatar

    Just stay away from Chinese Stocks. Even if the results are good, there is too much nonsensical regulations

    Jul 9, 2021 22:31
  • user-avatar

    I believe the market will continue to climb from time to time within these 6 months with many countries starting to go back to normalcy. Investors will continue to invest more into the stock markets vs businesses since many developing countries are still in lockdown. Existing funds won't turn into dollar if its not being used to work harder. My 2cents thoughts.

    Jul 10, 2021 01:55

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