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高盛:美国经济过热概率极小,12月前不会宣布减码

Goldman Sachs: the probability of overheating in the US economy is extremely small, and the reduction will not be announced before December.

新浪美股 ·  Jul 7, 2021 01:25

Economists at Goldman Sachs said their optimistic forecasts for global growth this year were shared by a growing number of competitors, falling the smallest distance from the Wall Street consensus since April 2020.

Goldman Sachs expects the global economy to grow 6.6 per cent this year and 4.8 per cent in 2022, compared with 6.3 per cent and 4.8 per cent for other banks, Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said in a report on Tuesday.

"as we expected, the recent fundamental growth news has become more mixed," Hatzius wrote.

On the plus side, the US labour market is accelerating, European executives are becoming optimistic and global vaccination campaigns have reduced COVID-19 's death toll. On the downside, Hatzius notes that demand growth in the United States is slowing, labor shortages are affecting production, and delta mutants are beginning to spread.

Goldman Sachs forecasts that the US economy will grow by 6.8 per cent in 2021 and 4.7 per cent next year, while the euro zone will grow by 5.2 per cent and 4.5 per cent respectively.

The US economy is unlikely to overheat because growth will slow as epidemic restrictions are lifted and financial support weakens, Hatzius said. He expects the Fed to announce a scaling back of its bond-buying program before December.

Edit / charlie

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