"We make a preliminary judgment that it may not be possible to gradually achieve the end of the volatile market until the summer, especially in the autumn. "

"keep in mind that the market is constantly changing styles. Therefore, we do not think it is advisable to take a certain class of stocks as the core asset. In the process of investment, we emphasize that there is no obsession with investment. "

"well, after the Spring Festival, we actually saw not only a big wave of correction, but also with the rise of long-end interest rates and inflation expectations, China was affected. the inflationary pressure upstream of us is actually entering a wave of so-called core high valuation sectors falling. But it is actually a process of rebalancing in the market. "

"there is no big problem with these assets. For example, its certainty and pricing ability. In fact, its annual profit is very obvious. Well, as for how long the adjustment will take, I am not sure, but we can also see that after the percentage of its positions dropped in 3300 and 3400, then his motivation to sell these good stocks has been reduced. "

"in fact, there is no so-called core asset. I think what we need to find is the long-term core asset, the core asset of the future. "

"at a time when monetary policy is still supporting economic recovery, and the global economy is beginning to follow China's economic recovery, in fact, I think (A shares) should not fall like this, but there are still some technical difficulties in rising. "

"in the long run, in fact, I think the biggest structural problem is how society as a whole distributes surplus value. As long as the social structure remains unchanged, the effective needs of the workers at the bottom and the working class will not be expressed for a long time, and their pressure on the inflation of society as a whole, or to strengthen deflation, will become more and more obvious. "

"what is the focus of the next stage of investment? We say that the entire A-share market investment now is the end of the cycle, machinery and equipment investment is just in time, the third, in the second half of the next stage, we can focus on science and technology and medicine. "

"when the Fed stops using its balance sheet to absorb market risks and let the market take responsibility for its own profits and losses, it is the most dangerous time for US stocks. "

"commodities have risen so much, and if they continue to rise, then I think, in jargon, the easiest money to earn has already been made. But I think it will still reach a new high in the shock, but to make this kind of money, I think the last bit of money is very tired, and its risks and rewards actually do not match very well. "

Huang Yanming, director of Guotai Junan Research Institute, and Hong Hao, chief economist of BoCom International, made the above judgment on the theme of "how to preserve assets under inflation" in a live broadcast on April 20.

The following is the essence of the investment activity book (Wechat ID:tuozizuoyeben) to share with you:

Huang Yanming: the concussion market may last until autumn

Huang Yanming: in the next stage, if there is a decline in the stock market, the horizontal market will fluctuate long enough after the fall, and after the chips are broken up, the problem of microstructure deterioration will be solved. So if the horizontal market concussion process, then the concussion time will be longer.

So if we look back from today's position, the time for horizontal volatility is far from enough at present. There is only more than a month left. We may make the most preliminary judgment until summer. It is only possible to gradually achieve the end of the concussion market in autumn, especially in autumn.

The market of holding group stocks is coming to an end.

We come to the most basic conclusion that we think it is very likely that expectations will continue to decline in the next stage. The second point, from the point of view of molecular-side and sub-parent interest rates, basically will not contribute to the positive side of the stock market, and the chips must be broken up in the next stage, so we saw one some time ago. I saw a cartoon on the Internet. What I saw was that a man rushed into someone's house and killed the A newspaper group stock today and the b newspaper group stock the next day. I don't know which newspaper group stock to kill next.

This kind of table describes the current reality, and these stock prices are almost coming to an end.

It will not be too far from the bottom, the horizontal market concussion to maintain confidence.

We think that whether the bottom is 3300 or 3300 lower, you will not be too far from the bottom as a whole, so we think it is a sideways shock, but we can still maintain confidence. Well, what we want to say is that the concussion time will still be relatively long, and everyone should be psychologically prepared. This is the first point.

The market style is constantly rotating, and the investment method of core assets is not advisable.

It is difficult for the stock market to have sustainable core assets. What was the best thing about the A-share market 15 years ago? At that time, the most awesome is the five golden flowers, we remember that the market is constantly in the style of rotation. Therefore, we do not think it is advisable to take a certain class of stocks as the core asset. Therefore, in the process of investment, we emphasize that there is no obsession with investment.

Hong Hao: the post-holiday market seems to have fallen a lot, but it is actually a process of rebalancing in the market.

Hong Hao: I would like to talk about the plate with high valuation. When the risk of the market is relatively certain, that is to say, when the market hovers in a low-risk area, then when the long-end interest rate continues to fall, then generally speaking, the valuation of the high valuation can continue to rise. Well, this is what happened in February this year before the Spring Festival.

Well, after the Spring Festival, in fact, we saw not only a big wave of correction, but also with the rise of long-end interest rates and inflation expectations, China was affected. the inflationary pressure upstream of us is actually entering a wave of so-called core high valuation sectors falling.

It seems that the market has fallen a lot because everyone was very excited before, but what we are seeing is some assets, that is, the growth of assets with very high valuations before, and the other part is the sectors with low valuations. the value sector and these cyclical sectors that have not been visited by many people before, it has a rising market.

In the high valuation growth sector of core assets, although the market has dropped a little relative to the high point a year ago, in fact, if you look at the overall trend chart, it does not decline much. Later, we saw that it turned to the undervalued plate, the cyclical plate. Although it feels like everyone has lost a lot of money, we watch all kinds of jokes all the time, but in fact, there is a process of rebalancing in the market. This is the first point.

There is no big problem with the assets of Baotuan plate, and it is hard to say how long the adjustment will take

The second, that is, the former huddled sectors in China, I don't know if our current fund manager, whether he holds every stock, such as the mutual fund budget, has a position requirement of about 5% to 10%. Generally speaking, each stock has a 10% position, if you have a centralized position, then your entire position will have 10 stocks, so when it is over 3500. That is to say, technically speaking, in terms of the requirements for the holding of the fund, he has far exceeded every fund manager, and is likely to be forced to remove some positions, so profit-taking.

So I don't think there is a big problem with these assets. For example, certainty and pricing ability, in fact, its annual profit is very obvious, but because it has risen too much, or its weight, its position, the fund manager has to reduce some positions from the technical requirements, so this may also cause some selling pressure. But this technical selling pressure does not change the basic business of the companies in which you hold positions.

The company is still making so much money, then their cash is still very strong, their pricing can be rebalanced, and technical adjustments can be made. Well, as for how long the adjustment will take, I am not sure, but we can also see that after the percentage of its positions dropped in 3300 and 3400, then his motivation to sell these good stocks has been reduced.

To find the long-term core assets, the core assets of tomorrow.

As for this phenomenon, as for core assets, in fact, I very much agree with what teacher Huang said just now, that is to say, there are no so-called core assets. I think in fact, what we need to find is long-term core assets, core assets for the future.

(a shares) can't go down, but there are some technical difficulties in rising.

So in fact, we see that although there has been a wave of pullback in some heavyweight stocks, we have seen some high-quality small and medium-sized stocks. In fact, its index has reached a new high. For example, if you pick 100 out of 500 in the 500, you turn it into an index. You take a look at it, although the overall market has been adjusted, but this 100 good quality small and medium-sized companies, in fact, it is a new high.

Therefore, under the circumstances that monetary policy is still supporting economic recovery, and the global economy is beginning to follow China's economic recovery, in fact, I think it should not go down like this, but there are still some technical difficulties in rising.

Huang Yanming: the difference between the Stock Market and the Core assets of the objective World

Huang Yanming: two barrels of oil is the core asset of our society, but it is no longer a core asset in the stock market, and several major banks are also the core assets of the society, but it is a total thinking, such as the pillar role of assets to the entire national economy, but it can not rise, so it is not the core asset of the stock market.

So the core assets of the objective world are in terms of aggregate thinking, while the core assets of stock markets are in terms of marginal thinking. For example, a company has a very good performance, a very good texture, and its stock price is very high. Its stock price does not rise for one, two or three years. You say that this stock is the core asset, and the characteristics of the core assets of the stock are recognized by everyone. Then the characteristics of the core asset are all reflected in the stock price, and the core asset can no longer go up. If the stock price can no longer go up, do you still think it is the core asset? Of course not.

For our entire investment. When this perception is reflected in the stock price, then the stock is no longer a core asset. Therefore, after these so-called core assets are generally recognized, the characteristics of its core assets disappear, does it mean that the characteristics of the core assets of its objective world disappear? no. Therefore, in this process, the core assets of the objective world and the core assets of the stock market are not the same thing.

The saying that stock investment has no core assets is only a unique phenomenon in the historical stage, but it is not the eternal investment theme of the whole stock market.

Hong Hao: with regard to inflation, the biggest structural problem is how society distributes surplus value.

Hong Hao: everyone at home and abroad is very concerned about the issue of inflation. after all, so much money has been printed, because the total balance sheet of central banks around the world has already reached the size of 31-32 trillion US dollars. If nothing happens, if the Fed buys it at this rate in the first quarter of next year, it should exceed the size of 10 trillion.

So on the inflation side, he thinks a huge inflation is coming.

But in the long run, in fact, I think the biggest structural problem is how the whole society distributes surplus value.

Well, because of the workers at the bottom and the working class, they account for the majority of the whole population, but their wages and wealth account for a small proportion, accounting for 1x3 or even less, respectively.

Therefore, as long as the social structure does not change, the effective needs of these people will not be expressed for a long time, and their pressure on the inflation of society as a whole, or to strengthen deflation, will become more and more obvious.

The United States will still see inflationary pressures within 18 months.

On the one hand, within a short period of 18 months in American society, we do see some inflationary pressures, not just from commodities. We also have to think that the whole commodity accounts for the input cost of the whole world economy and the wage demand of social workers.

In addition, whether this cyclical inflation will turn into a long-term trend inflation in the next 18 months depends on the structure of society as a whole, so Biden has indeed done a lot in the United States now. increase the income of families of more than $400000, but 400000 cannot survive for a family of three in New York. Moreover, no specific measures such as wealth tax and inheritance tax have been proposed, so I think for the time being, the long-term social structure has indeed led us to see the pressure of long-term inflation.

Huang Yanming: the cycle has come to an end, and the machinery and equipment are at the right time.

What is the focus of the next stage of investment? We say that the entire A-share market investment now is the end of the cycle, machinery and equipment investment is just in time, the third, in the second half of the next stage, we can focus on science and technology and medicine.

So now we come to the conclusion that the cycle has reached the top, the mechanical equipment is just in time, and then technology and medicine focus on a performance at the end of the year, and we can gradually lay out science and technology and medicine.

Therefore, in the next stage, the focus of investment opportunities is on the stocks of machinery and equipment.

Hong Hao: a high-quality company that pays attention to reasonable valuation

Hong Hao: just now I also gave an example, that is, if you take out 100 companies with good quality among the 500 companies with good quality in the CSI and make an index, you will distribute your money in these 100 stocks in an equal position. so now, in fact, your position is constantly innovating.

So we still think that no matter what happens in the market, inflation in the second half of the year, then this time for the previous high valuations of the sector and expected repressed growth, expected repression is also a general time. Well, at this time, in fact, we will pay more attention to some high-quality companies with reasonable valuation.

The whole world will be more and more leveraged.

It is very difficult for the Federal Reserve to lower its balance sheet. In fact, after so many years of adding leverage, the macro leverage ratio of China and the United States is actually getting higher and higher. After this, there is a long-term trend of deflation, or there is no inflation, which actually gives these global central banks a good excuse to continue to leverage.

Judging from so many years of experience, whether it is the United States, China or Europe, leverage is actually getting higher and higher. For many countries that have added leverage in 100 years, their leverage ratio has now reached the highest level since 1900. So in the end, I think the whole world will develop in this direction.

When the Federal Reserve stops using its balance sheet to absorb market risks and let the market be responsible for its own profits and losses, it is the most dangerous time for US stocks.

The second question is whether such a high leverage ratio, or the debt burden created by high debt, will put pressure on stocks.

I think generally speaking, when we see correction pressure on US stocks, it is either the Federal Reserve or the 13-year reduction in bond purchases, or 18 years when it wants to put US monetary policy on autopilot and let it fend for itself.

If, because of the worry about the debt burden, the Federal Reserve stops using its balance sheet to absorb the risk of the whole market and let the market take responsibility for its own profits and losses, this is the most dangerous time for US stocks, then you have just mentioned it yourself. for example, interest rates were raised and the bubble burst when it was beautiful in 50, and it was also when interest rates were raised and bubbles burst in 2000.

The easiest money for commodities has already been made, and it will be very tiring to make a little more money at the end.

I think the cycle of commodity prices is closely related to China's monetary policy. If you can take a look at my recent two research reports, in fact, we have made a fitting diagram of the commodity price cycle and the cycle of China's monetary policy, then basically both of them are about three to three and a half years.

Well, now, in fact, China's monetary policy has entered a normalization, that is to say, from supporting our economic recovery in 2020 to this year, the whole region may be normalized, so whether it is the rate of credit growth, or the rate of monetary growth, it's starting to slow down.

Well, at this time, commodities have already risen so much, and if they continue to rise, then in fact, I think, in jargon, the easiest money to earn has already been made.

I believe that you have come up from the bottom to make iron ore futures. I estimate that it has increased several times, so recently we have also made some changes on the supply side, such as concerns about environmental pollution, and accountability for the heads of some over-production enterprises. Then the introduction of these policies will interfere with the expectations of the whole market for commodities, especially iron ore, to continue to rise sharply.

So I think although it has entered the middle and late stage or the easiest money has been earned, I think it will still reach a new high in the shock, but in order to earn this kind of money, I think the last bit of money is very tired. and its risks and rewards don't really match.