"A lot of people say, will the collapse of the holding stock be the same as the collapse of the beautiful 50% of that year?

When the beautiful 50 collapsed, it was the era of hyperinflation.

From 1964 to 1981, its interest rate was very high, more than ten percent, similar to our period of time in the 1990s, the stock market was very difficult.

But now it is zero interest rate, negative interest rate, which must have a lot to do with its interest rate environment. When you are zero interest rate negative interest rate, as long as there is a dividend, one point two points you are very happy. "

"if the growth trajectory of the world's top 500 companies in the past was parabolic, a company grew up from a small company to its zenith, and then slowly died out.

But now many companies are growing very fast. For example, Mr. Huang Zheng has just retired. The company under his leadership took only five years, from 0 to 780 million users, surpassing Taobao.

It may rise very fast and may continue for a long time after reaching the top.

So now the growth trajectory of Internet companies has changed from parabolic structure to rectangular structure or trapezoidal structure.

On the left side of the trapezoid, most of these companies are losing money. Amazon has lost money for 20 years, and the electric car company just mentioned, for example, actually lost money for a long time, and now trades at 1000 times earnings. "

"every second light moment of a public offering fund, for example, tens of billions, hundreds of billions of dollars, is basically a peak. Generally speaking, when it comes to a big redemption, it is a low point. "

"after the bursting of the dotcom bubble, a great new business model was born on top of this bubble. Including new energy vehicles are very hot, all kinds of companies have come to participate, attention has come, it may be a bubble at some stage, but when the bubble is silent, really give birth to a few very good companies to change human life. "

"when the Internet bubble burst, I thought the Internet era was coming. At that time, like Mr. Zhang Lei, we also invested in the entire track. We bought all three listed companies. The one that has risen the most among the three has probably increased about 3000 times. "

When we studied America's leading electric car company, its share price was only $30. In 2014, when we went to New York to investigate the company, the company secretary also came out to receive us. He thought it was very strange that Chinese people came to us for research.

At that time, the company was not large, and he asked us to go to California for a test drive to see its first-generation factory. Later, when Rose of time was republished, on page 185, we also thought the company should be worth 600,000 yuan, 94 billion dollars.

As now, the company is always showing some negativity, and many people think that the company is going bankrupt, such as the Morgan Stanley report that it is worth only 10 yuan, but now its market capitalization is about $700 billion.

So when the new business model comes out, if it really changes the world, the corresponding returns are really amazing. "

"this kind of world-changing company investment is very difficult because it has no margin of safety, but if you don't invest, you may miss a great era, and if you don't buy these companies until they are mature, you may have missed the increase of thousands of times. "

"the industry that can cross the cycle is closely related to the lives of our people, and it is a company with a very long cultural influence. "

The above is the latest and wonderful ideas shared by Dan Bin, chairman of Oriental Harbor, in today's online communication.

From the point of view of valuation, Dan Bin talked about the recent A-share, Hong Kong and US stock markets.In this paper, the phenomena of clumping shares and persistence which are concerned by the market are analyzed.；

At the same time, combined with several cases of his own specific investment, he shared his specific views on new energy vehicles, liquor, real estate, home appliances and other industries.

The reason for the resilience of US stocks: the valuations of major companies are not expensive

Q: no matter when the US stock market rises, there will always be a voice saying that the US stock bubble is too big, and some people say it is going to burst year after year. What do you think of the so-called bubble problem of US stocks?

Dan Bin: as soon as Oriental Harbor was established, I did it in A shares and Hong Kong stocks, and later I became a US stock. We have been doing it for many years.

The valuations of these major companies in US stocks are not expensive. For companies such as FAANG, except for Amazon, which is a little more expensive, the other companies are about 30 times as expensive.

And they do business with people all over the world, and 40% of the world's profits are earned by American companies.

And once its ecology is successful, such as Apple, it is making money for us Chinese, but can we hit apples as Americans do Huawei? It is very difficult, so it is to make money from all over the world.

If say 30 times, plus its growth, say 20% to 30% growth, its valuation is not expensive.

Why is the American market more resilient?

Because the valuations of major companies are not expensive, such as FAANG accounts for almost 50% of the weight of Nasdaq, as long as these companies do not fall, or fall back soon, it is very resilient.

In addition, like tobacco, of course, out of social responsibility, we do not invest, such as the American tobacco giant companies are only more than ten times the price-to-earnings ratio.

Our Chinese tobacco company is not listed, but the e-cigarette company is listed in Hong Kong and the valuation is very expensive.

There is also, like the military industry, the leading US military industry with a price-to-earnings ratio of more than ten times earnings, which is also very cheap. Why do our domestic military enterprises rise and fall greatly? because the valuation is still too expensive.

So whether a market is resilient or not ultimately depends on changes in valuation.

If the major leading companies' valuations are inexpensive or appropriate, coupled with growth, it is very resilient.

Just now I joked that the A-share market was more than 6000 points in 2007 and now it is more than 3000 points. The reason has a lot to do with our issuing system.

In the past, it was the examination and approval system, and the demand was greater than the supply. For example, many stocks should be worth 20 or 30 times, and work for you to 100 or 200 times at once. After it is listed, it basically goes down.

Good Chinese companies are listed in the United States and Hong Kong, rising thousands of times and hundreds of times after listing.

During the more than 40 years of reform and opening up, these companies, which have enjoyed the best results of China's development and the Internet era, have all been listed overseas, which is a major reason for the defects of the A-share market.

Understand these problems, also understand why American companies are so good, it must have inherent reasonable logic.

The reduction of holdings does not necessarily lead to problems in the company. Why did the Internet leader not fall much when it was reduced this time?

Q: a few days ago, the major shareholders of China's well-known Internet companies reduced their holdings. You also made some comments on this. Can you talk more about this phenomenon?

Dan Bin: the reduction itself is very normal, including today, the stock of a sports brand has also plummeted in Hong Kong, because it is also a major shareholder to reduce its holdings.

Under the adjustment of the market economy, the reduction of holdings does not necessarily lead to problems in the company.

In the process of reducing holdings of the leading enterprises on the Internet, we can see that, like the company of the largest social platform at present, its boss rises every time it reduces its holdings.

I remember that in the early years, it reduced its holdings of 20 million shares. if you buy a villa in Shenzhen, 20 million shares are now 100 million shares. Even if it costs more than 600 yuan, it is only more than 60 billion yuan, how many villas you can buy.

The reduction of major shareholders does not have to lead to a fall in the stock. For example, when the South African company reduced its holdings three years ago, it fell by 50%. Why did the reduction fall so small, or even not so much? it is still a matter of valuation.

Three years ago, it might have been 60 or 70 times earnings. Now it is 30 times earnings. By 2021 or 2022, it may have become more than 20 times earnings.

The valuation of such a company is relatively cheap, so valuation is the most important issue.

For example, another Internet giant company wants to allocate 50 billion. If this company is placed in A shares, many of our people have said, what is your name? It's called drawing blood.

In an open market, the core role of capital is to make good companies better in this way.

Of course, you may draw blood once, and if it's really bad, you'll go down. But if refinancing and so on can enable the company to establish a longer-term competitiveness, the market will still vote in favor of it.

But in any case, it will be more efficient if the market is left to the capital market to allocate resources on its own. In the long run, it is a more optimized option, otherwise many companies will not be listed on A-shares.

Why the new business model companies go to Hong Kong or abroad, it is more conducive to market-oriented operation.

The second light of the public offering fund is basically a peak, but when it comes to a big redemption, it is a low point.

Q: there is a very well-known fund this year. In one quarter, the size of the fund was bought and sold by half of the base people. This is very scary. As a firm practitioner of value investment, what do you think of value investment?

But Bin: I also turned a watch the day before yesterday. Every second light of a public offering fund, for example, tens of billions or hundreds of billions, is basically a peak. Generally speaking, when it comes to a big redemption, it is a low point.

However, there has been a change recently. from the general situation of public offering funds, investors are gradually maturing, including the base people are also gradually maturing, it will not be said that because of the recent adjustment, there is no trust in star fund managers. Generally speaking, it is still positive. There are more people to bless, which is a little different from that in the past.

For example, people in our A-share market especially like plate rotation, style switching, looking for the next hot spot, including what to hold together for heating and so on.

It's best not to think from these angles. If you think from these angles, you can easily lose money.

For example, last year, both excellent private and public offerings made a lot of money, but it was easy for you to lose small change when you invested in the stock market last year.

If there are 100 million yuan, at the beginning of the year, it is said that the bull market is coming, and if you buy a securities firm, the brokerage firm has dropped by 20 to 30 percent, and 100 million may be left with 70 million.

Chip stocks went public in the middle of the year, saying that China's rise depends on chips. If you buy chips, they will fall by 30%. By this time, there may be 50 million left.

By the end of the year, new energy will fall 40% after catching up, and you may only have 30 million left. Recently, it is said that carbon-neutral energy has fallen again, and it is easy for you to change from 100 million to odd change.

But if you choose some good companies, long-term companies, for example, it will make a profit of 100 million this year, 200 million, 300 million, 400 million, 500 million, 600 million, 700 million, 800 million next year. We have also made statistics that for all listed companies, if their profits are growing positively every year, for example, for 10 or 20 years, their profits are growing every year, and they are 100% Daniel stocks.

In other words, if you want to target these companies without guessing where the next hot spot is and whether the plate will rotate, it is a better result.

The investment must be win-win, not cutting leeks.

Over the past 31 years, the trading culture formed by us Chinese people is very difficult to change, and many people are thinking about what to cut leeks and huddle together.

I don't quite agree with the idea that investment is a win-win cause.

When a company makes a profit from 100 million to 10 billion, everyone wins, the country wins, the enterprise wins, the employee wins, and the investor wins.

Investment is a sharing business, not to say that you win and I lose, or that I win and you lose, it is not a zero-sum game, not futures, stocks can rely on profit growth, win-win.

Sometimes when we write Weibo or record our lives, we may also indirectly help some people. These friends have bought these good companies, changed their entire fate and family destiny, and become richer.

You should use a more positive way of thinking, including huddling together to keep warm. I prefer to use another word, that is, great minds think alike.

A good company, it is best that it has no ceiling, and its business model must be very simple, reliable and easy to understand.

In other words, only Dongfang Harbor knows a good company, no one can study it, and you can't make too much money. If I know, you know, and everyone knows about this good company, we will know that only when people gather firewood can it increase by 100 times, 1000 times and 10, 000 times.

So the investment must be win-win, not cutting leeks. You can't cut much, and if you jump from one company to another, you may end up screwed yourself.

Adhere to a long-term way of thinking, for example, let's make a model or analysis, saying that in the next 10 or 20 years, the company's profits can range from 100 million to 2 billion, 3 billion, 5 billion or more, and everyone wins.

Why every country is willing to vigorously develop capital markets, because it is really better to allocate high-quality resources to good companies, and casinos are only allowed in a few countries.

Investment still requires a positive attitude. Many people seem to regard capital as a life-and-death game. No, it is a very positive one, which plays a positive role in the development of the country, society and human beings, including companies with bubbles.

After the bursting of the dotcom bubble, a great new business model was born on top of this bubble.

Including new energy vehicles are very hot, all kinds of companies have come to participate, attention has come, it may be a bubble at some stage, but when the bubble is silent, really give birth to a few very good companies to change human life.

The industry that can pass through the cycle is closely related to our lives.

Q: can you talk about companies that change the world and companies that are not changed by the world?

Dan Bin: some areas of investment have changed a lot, of course, but on the wholeThe industry that can cross the cycle is closely related to the lives of our people, and it is a company with a very long cultural influence.

Because it takes 100 and 1000 years to change culture, a company like this business model, once it establishes strong barriers to competition, it will be difficult for the world to change.

For example, among the 16 oldest companies in the world, 4 are alcohol companies.

The life cycle of a wine company is very long. A beer company in Germany has been in existence for more than 1000 years. Its products are also in short supply and sold out as soon as they come out.

This kind of company is actually very difficult to change, unless in the future invent a chip implanted in your head, directly through the electrical signal to give you the experience of drinking, as long as this does not happen, joys and sorrows need to drink.

The cycle of this kind of company may last for 200 or 1000 years. When we do the DCF model, we know that the survival time of a company, such as 20 years, 50 years, and 200 years, 1000 years is very different.

If the company really changes the world, the corresponding return is amazing, but the company that changes the world is very difficult to invest.

The other is the companies that change the world, and it is more difficult for them to invest.

When the Internet bubble burst, I thought the Internet era was coming. At that time, like Mr. Zhang Lei, we also invested in the entire track. We bought all three listed companies.

The one that has risen the most among the three has probably increased about 3000 times.

With the advent of the Internet era, a large number of great enterprises have been born.With the advent of the era of smart cars, several similar giants may be born.

When we studied America's leading electric car company, its share price was only $30.

In 2014, when we went to New York to investigate the company, the company secretary also came out to receive us. He thought it was very strange that Chinese people came to us for research.

At that time, the company was not large, and he asked us to go to California for a test drive to see its first-generation factory. Later, when Rose of time was republished, on page 185, we also thought the company should be worth 600,000 yuan, 94 billion dollars.

As now, the company is always showing some negativity, and many people think that the company is going bankrupt, such as the Morgan Stanley report that it is worth only 10 yuan, but now its market capitalization is about $700 billion.

So when the new business model comes out, if it really changes the world, the corresponding returns are really amazing.

In addition, new business models are also undergoing major changes. If the growth trajectory of the world's top 500 companies in the past was parabolic, a company grew from a small company to its zenith, and then slowly died out.

But now it is the era of big data and artificial intelligence, and many companies are growing very fast.

For example, Mr. Huang Zheng has just retired, and his company took only five years, from 0 to 780 million users, surpassing Taobao.

It may rise very fast and may continue for a long time after reaching the top.

So now the growth trajectory of Internet companies has changed from parabolic structure to rectangular structure or trapezoidal structure.

On the left side of the trapezoid, most of these companies are losing money. Amazon has lost money for 20 years, and the electric car company just mentioned, for example, actually lost money for a long time, and now trades at 1000 times earnings.

In other words, this kind of world-changing company is difficult to invest because it has no margin of safety.

But if you don't invest, you may miss a great era, and if you don't buy until the maturity of these companies, you may have missed a thousand-fold increase.

For example, with the growth of Apple, many people said that Jobs was an asshole in the early days. If you really thought he was an asshole, you might not buy his company, and the situation is the same now.

Electric car companies are always in trouble, so do you want to invest, or if you have already invested, how to deal with negative reports?

No company is perfect, no matter how good it is, all companies have flaws. When we invest, we have to look at whether some factors are the main or secondary factors, including the changes in the economy we just analyzed, the changes in tightening and easing, and so on. It is also a main line, and contraction is a secondary cause.

The same is true when it comes to analyzing a company. What is the main reason for reversing it?

To grasp the main cause, and not for secondary reasons to make decisions, but many people are often dominated by secondary reasons, thus missing out on a lot of great opportunities.

I believe almost everyone has bought bull stocks, but they often can't hold them, and they are generally scared by secondary reasons.

But if you think about it, what determines the long-term future of the company. This is what we said in the past, to think about the logical starting point.

If a company rises from 5 yuan to 50 yuan, you sell it at this time, and then it falls back to 3 or 5 yuan. You must not be lucky to say that you have made so much money, but to reflect on the logical starting point you just bought. If you sell it for 50 yuan, it can rise to 500 or 5000 yuan, which proves that the logical starting point you started thinking is right.

If every time you start to think about the logical starting point is based on the long-term thinking of the future, even if you sell it for 50 yuan, you should also think that your original judgment is correct, so that you always win every time you make an investment. You have to think about something at the core of your investment.

Investment should be bought for the long term, hold high-quality assets for more than 10 years, and its risk is the same as that of bonds.

Q: even value investors should have the opportunity to sell. What do you have to share about selling?

Dan Bin: there is a very wrong view in the domestic investment circle that those who will buy are apprentices and those who will sell are masters.

In fact, this view is wrong.

If you are investing with your own funds and there are no early warning lines and liquidation lines to torture you, investment should be similar to buying a house.

For example, you bought more than 10, 000 or 20, 000 houses in Shenzhen in 2008, but now it has risen to 100000 or 200000. Are you going to sell the house?

You may make a little money when you sell it, but it continues to rise after it is sold out.

At that time, you might buy a house with millions, but now millions may only be enough to pay the rent.

In fact, this is the same as investing (stocks). For example, if you bought 100 million yuan for a company, and now its market value has risen to 30 billion or 50 billion, even if it pays 2% dividend every year, it still has a lot of income every year, so this company is like a chicken that lays golden eggs. why did you kill the chicken?

In addition, I read a book called "the Future of investors" many years ago. Why do you want to allocate high-quality assets? Because only high-quality assets can resist inflation.

In the past 100 years of history, money has long legs, not to mention that you have made 100 million yuan (what can be done), just like the ten thousand yuan households when I was a child.

At that time, 10,000 yuan was saved up to now only 20,000 to 30,000, and it was gone after a little spending, but at that time, 10,000 was just like today's billionaires, so the money had long legs.

If you invest that 10,000 yuan, it will be different. Just like the house price in Beijing at that time, you may be able to buy several quadrangles for 10,000 yuan.

So only high-quality assets can go through change.

When you hold these high-quality assets for more than 10 years, the risk is the same as that of bonds; when you hold these high-quality assets for more than 15 years, your risk is less than bonds.

In other words, it's the right investment, so why did you sell it?

For example, when you bought Tomson Yipin in the early years, I remember I told our colleagues that if it dared to sell 50, 000 yuan five years later, it would be sold out, but now it may have sold up to 300000 yuan. Will you sell this scarce resource looking at the Huangpu River because you bought it for 50, 000 yuan? After you sell it, it will rise in the future, and you may not be able to buy it back.

Therefore, the investment should be bought for the long term.

If you don't invest professionally, the best thing is to buy a house.

Q: the latter question is that I would like to hear your advice from the perspective of asset allocation, especially from the family side.

But Bin: if your investment is not professional, the best thing is to buy a house, although the house purchase restrictions are more severe now.

Because investment is very professional, if you are not professional, if you do plate rotation and style switching, it is easy to change 100 million into change. You might as well not come, you might as well buy bonds or make bank deposits, although in the end, the money will run away with long legs, but at least it is better than your loss.

Investment is very professional. If you get sick, will you operate on yourself? Let you fly the plane, do you dare to fly?

Investment is the same, it is a very professional thing, unless you are willing to learn to become very professional, you can do it yourself.

In addition, there is no capital gains tax in our A-share market, including Herm è s, which we once wanted to buy, but its capital gains tax is 75%, that is, if you earn 100 yuan, you have to give 75 yuan to the French government.

We have just seen a case of a shipbuilding stock in the United States. A retail investor earns 70, 000 yuan in a shipbuilding stock, but he has to pay 800000 in tax because he may hold it in the United States for a certain period of time before he is exempt from tax.

So our A-share people are happier. Why? Because the money earned by stocks is not taxed, and housing is not taxed.

But what's the problem? The problem is that 80% of our Chinese people lose money, because they buy and sell sometimes, which is not very professional.

So I suggest that either you are professional enough, or you should give it to a professional organization to do it, so that you will be worthy of your wealth, or buy a house or bonds, etc., some more conservative investments.

The valuation of many companies is a systematic concept, which is difficult to quantify.

Q: there is always some ambiguity in judging a company's overvaluation and undervaluation. How to understand overvaluation and underestimation?

Dan Bin: yesterday, a friend also asked me, he said that the collapse of the beautiful 50, at that time 50 or 60 times, benefited from the 1970s to 80 years, how to understand the time of 10 years?

Many people say, will the collapse of the holding stock be the same as the collapse of the beautiful 50% of that year?

When the beautiful 50 collapsed, it was the era of hyperinflation.

From 1964 to 1981, its interest rate was very high, more than ten percent, similar to our period of time in the 1990s, the stock market was very difficult.

But now it is zero interest rate, negative interest rate, which must have a lot to do with its interest rate environment.When you are zero interest rate negative interest rate, as long as there is a dividend, one point two points you are very happy.

I also transferred an article yesterday. Some economists think that the whole world will become Japanese in the future. If it becomes Japanese, the society will stagnate. If the whole world is like this, the valuations of good companies will be very difficult to be cheap.

Therefore, the level of valuation must be closely related to its social environment.

Another one, which I also described in the Rose of time, Buffett was asked if you have a formula to judge whether a company is overvalued or undervalued.

Munger joked that for a secret book like Kung Fu Panda, I must wait until the dead of night, when everything is silent, and secretly take out the secret book.

As soon as Kung Fu Panda unfolds the secret book, there is nothing, a blank piece of paper.

Buffett also said that vague rights outweigh precise errors.

The valuation of many companies is a systematic, integrated concept, which is difficult to quantify.

I also gave an example in "the Rose of time". A friend of mine said that he could accurately calculate the exact valuation of a real estate company. At that time, I said, you don't have to calculate this company, even if you are your house, how many times will this house rise 20 years later? it's static.

The company is dynamic, it has a lot of changes.

What do you think? It is very variable, you can only be a vague correct, it is difficult to say that there is a formula (can be calculated clearly). Investing is a very difficult thing.