Event

In March 2021, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 216000 and 226000 respectively, an increase of 337% and 328% over the same period last year, and an increase of 75% and 106% over the previous month. Sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the month were 202000, an increase of 276% over the same period last year and 101% month-on-month. The cumulative production and sales of new energy vehicles from January to March in 2021 reached 533000 and 515000, an increase of 421% and 360% over the same period last year, while sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 468000 from January to March, an increase of 316% over the same period last year.

Domestic sales of new energy vehicles exceeded expectations by 226000 in March.

first,Private demand remained at a high level of 77%, while models of class B and above accounted for 36%.The proportion of risk in private consumption has remained high since 2021, reaching 77%. In terms of model structure, medium and large cars of class B and above represented by domestic Tesla, Inc. M3/MY and Xinqiang accounted for 36%, compared with + 6pct at the end of 2020. The proportion of A00 class is 33%, and the month-on-month ratio remains unchanged.

Second, the month-on-month growth of best-selling models has increased significantly, with Hongguang Mini, domestic Tesla, Inc. and BYD all growing at a rate of more than 90 per cent.In the ranking of models, Hongguang Mini topped the list with 40000 vehicles, with a market share of 20%, while domestic M3 and MY ranked second and third with 25000 and 10000 respectively, with a market share of 13% and 5%, respectively. In the ranking of car companies, Shangtong Wuling won the top spot this month with 41000 vehicles, followed by domestic Tesla, Inc. with 35000 vehicles, and BYD ranked third with 24000 vehicles.

Third, the sinking of acceleration channels and the layout of charging facilities for new energy vehicles continue to infiltrate into second-and third-tier cities.In March, the number of Tesla, Inc., NIO Inc., ideal and XPeng Inc. stores increased to 277,230,150,269. In March, the proportion of new energy passenger car sales in license-restricted cities continued to decline to 28%, month-on-month-3pct, breaking through the lowest level in the past two years, the marginal impact of policy and road rights has weakened, and the competitiveness of tram products has continued to improve, reflecting the dominant market demand.

Sales of new energy passenger cars are expected to reach 180000 in April and 2.25 million for the whole year.

Sales of new energy passenger cars exceeded expectations again in March, and consumer demand remained high after the Spring Festival, which strongly verified our prediction of the prosperity of the industry at the beginning of the year. Grass-roots research shows that the schedule of domestic hot-selling models such as Tesla, Inc., Xinli and Hongguang Mini maintained steady growth in April, with sales of new energy passenger vehicles expected to reach 180000 and Q2 sales of 52-540000 in April, maintaining the forecast of 2.25 million for the whole year.

Investment suggestion

High-quality models represented by domestic Tesla, Inc., Volkswagen ID series and New Power drive strong growth in private demand, and sales of new energy vehicles in China are expected to reach 2.4 million in 2021. Be optimistic about the demand for lithium-ion materials in the middle reaches, and recommend leading enterprises in all aspects.Ningde Times, Yiwei LiNeng, Enjie shares, Putailai, Tianci Materials (covered by the Chemical Group), Hongfa shares, Kodali and so on.

Risk hint

The risk that the production and sales of new energy vehicles fall short of expectations.