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Options Montage: Are rising rates bearish for the S&P 500?

Moomoo News ·  Mar 22, 2021 11:52  · Exclusive

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by Eli, Mia

Market-wide option volume of 43.3m contracts was 3% above recent average levels, with calls leading puts 3 to 2. ETF and single stock products saw relatively heavy volume, while index flow was moderate. 

Most active sectors included Financials, Technology and Consumer Cyclicals while Telecommunications and Industrials were relatively light. Of the 3,875 stocks with listed options, 2,238 (58%) closed higher, and 1,544 (40%) lower. Among the 500 most liquid single stocks, 30day implied volatility was lower for 427 and higher for 31. Unusual total option volume was observed in $Facebook Inc(FB.US)$, $Bank of America Corporation(BAC.US)$, $Clovis Oncology Inc(CLVS.US)$$Visa Inc(V.US)$ and $Nike Inc(NKE.US)$.

Are rising rates bearish for the S&P 500?

Over the past month, yields have been influencing the market's volatility at one of the highest levels in years. Given the situation, Bank of America analysts pulled the data back to 1920 over 19 rising rate cycles for the US 10-year Treasury yield using monthly closing data from Global Financial Data. It shows these cycles lasted an average of 2.3 years(1.8 medians) with an average rise in the 10-year yield of 2.4%(1.8% median). During these rising rate cycles, the $S&P 500 index(.SPX.US)$ has traded higher 14 times or 74% of the time with an average return of 13.3%(16.5% median).

The last time an upward cycle for the US 10-year yield coincided with a decline for the $S&P 500 index(.SPX.US)$ was from Sep. 1993- Nov. 1994(Fed raising rates), but $S&P 500 index(.SPX.US)$ was down only 1.1%.

Notable bettings toward broader market indices ETF on 3/19

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Individuals breakdown by sectors (3/19 notable bets)

Tech

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Industrial

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Consumer Cyclical

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Financial

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Communication Services

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Healthcare

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Energy

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Real Estate

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Basic materials

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Consumer Defensive

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Utilities

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Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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