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What's missing from Warren Buffett's annual letter

What's missing from Warren Buffett's annual letter

沃伦·巴菲特(Warren Buffett)的年度信函中遗漏了什么
Dow Jones Newswires ·  2021/02/28 19:31

By Andrew Bary

安德鲁·巴里(Andrew Bary)著

The highlight of Warren Buffett's annual shareholder letter was his discussion of Berkshire Hathaway's stepped-up stock-buyback activity, which totaled $9 billion in each of the final two quarters of 2020 and $24.7 billion for the year, up from $4.9 billion in 2019.

沃伦·巴菲特(Warren Buffett)年度股东信的亮点是他对伯克希尔哈撒韦(Berkshire Hathaway)加大股票回购活动的讨论,2020年最后两个季度的股票回购总额为90亿美元,全年为247亿美元,高于2019年的49亿美元。

That should cheer $Berkshire Hathaway Inc.-Class B(BRK.B.US)$ holders as a clear sign that Buffett views the shares as undervalued.

这应该值得欢呼$Berkshire Hathaway Inc.-B类(BRK.B.US)$股东认为这是一个明确的迹象,表明巴菲特认为这些股票被低估了。

The stock trailed the S&P 500 index by a total of more than 40 percentage points during 2019 and 2020. Last year's buybacks, which totaled 5.2% of Berkshire's shares outstanding, have continued at a strong pace in 2021, with more than $4 billion repurchased through Feb. 16, our analysis shows.

在2019年至2020年期间,该股总共落后标准普尔500指数逾40个百分点。去年的回购总额占伯克希尔哈撒韦公司流通股的5.2%,2021年继续以强劲的速度回购我们的分析显示,截至2月16日,回购了超过40亿美元。

What was missing from the 14-page letter released early Saturday was a discussion of many topics that are important to Berkshire investors. Buffett didn't talk about succession, the significant underperformance of Berkshire shares, missed investment opportunities during 2020, and Berkshire's leadership team.

周六早些时候公布的这封长达14页的信中,遗漏了对伯克希尔投资者来说很重要的许多话题的讨论。巴菲特没有谈到继任、伯克希尔股票表现严重不佳、在2020年错失了投资机会以及伯克希尔的领导团队。

Berkshire CEO Buffett also didn't address the lack of a dividend at Berkshire, which Barron's has advocated , given its ample earnings and huge cash position.

伯克希尔首席执行长巴菲特(Buffett)也没有提到巴伦一直主张的伯克希尔缺乏股息的问题,因为它有充足的收益和巨额现金头寸。

"Before I read the letter, I like to think, 'What could surprise me?,'" says David Rolfe, chief investment officer at Wedgewood Partners in St. Louis. "There haven't been a whole lot of surprises in the past few years."

圣路易斯韦奇伍德合伙公司(Westgewood Partners)首席投资官大卫·罗尔夫(David Rolfe)说:“在我读这封信之前,我喜欢想,‘什么能让我大吃一惊?’”“在过去的几年里,并没有太多令人意外的事情。”

Rolfe, who sold out of a longstanding Berkshire holding in 2019, called the letter a "trip down memory lane" by the 90-year-old Buffett. The CEO discussed the history of long-term Berkshire holdings See's Candies, Nebraska Furniture Mart, and Geico, and gave a nod to a group of Nebraska doctors now around 100 years old who have held Berkshire for more than 50 years.

罗尔夫在2019年出售了伯克希尔哈撒韦公司长期持有的股份,他称这封信是90岁高龄的巴菲特的一次“回忆之旅”。这位首席执行官谈到了伯克希尔哈撒韦公司长期持有的糖果、内布拉斯加州家具市场和Geico的历史,并向一群现在大约100岁的内布拉斯加州医生点头,他们已经持有伯克希尔哈撒韦公司50多年。

Berkshire's class A shares, which finished Friday at $364,580, are up 4.7% so far in 2021. The class B stock ended Friday at $240.51. Barron's has written favorably about Berkshire, arguing that the stock looks inexpensive given an attractive valuation at less than 1.3 times year-end 2020 book value and a strong earnings outlook for 2021. Berkshire's operating earnings per share were up 19% in the fourth quarter.

伯克希尔的A类股上周五收于364,580美元,2021年迄今已上涨4.7%。B类股上周五收于240.51美元。Barron‘s曾撰文看好伯克希尔哈撒韦公司,认为考虑到其具有吸引力的估值不到2020年底账面价值的1.3倍,以及2021年强劲的盈利前景,该公司股票看起来并不昂贵。伯克希尔第四季度每股运营收益增长了19%。

On buybacks, Buffett wrote: "Last year we demonstrated our enthusiasm for Berkshire's spread of properties by repurchasing the equivalent of 80,998 'A' shares, spending $24.7 billion in the process. That action increased your ownership in all of Berkshire's businesses by 5.2% without requiring you to so much as touch your wallet."

在回购方面,巴菲特写道:“去年,我们通过回购相当于80,998股‘A股’的股票,花费了247亿美元,展示了我们对伯克希尔哈撒韦公司资产扩张的热情。这一行动使你在伯克希尔所有业务中的持股增加了5.2%,而你甚至不需要碰钱包。”

"The buybacks are really impressive," says Jim Shanahan, an analyst at Edward Jones with a Buy rating on Berkshire. "It's not what I would have expected a year ago."

爱德华·琼斯(Edward Jones)分析师吉姆·沙纳汉(Jim Shanahan)对伯克希尔的评级为买入,他说:“回购真的令人印象深刻。”“这不是我一年前预料到的。”

Buffett took the blame for Berkshire's ill-fated 2016 purchase for around $33 billion of Precision Castparts, a maker of aircraft parts hard hit by the aerospace downturn. It was the subject of a write-down of more than $10 billion in 2020.

巴菲特为伯克希尔2016年以约330亿美元收购精密铸件公司(Precision CastParts)的交易承担了责任。精密铸件公司是一家飞机零部件制造商,受到航空航天行业低迷的沉重打击。2020年,它的资产减记超过100亿美元。

"I paid too much for the company. No one misled me in any way -- I was simply too optimistic about PCC's normalized profit potential. Last year, my miscalculation was laid bare by adverse developments throughout the aerospace industry, PCC's most important source of customers," Buffett wrote. Shanahan noted that Buffett, "always a gentleman, wouldn't throw anybody under the bus" for the deal.

巴菲特写道:“我为这家公司支付了太高的价格。没有人以任何方式误导我--我只是对PCC正常化的盈利潜力过于乐观。去年,我的误判暴露在整个航空航天行业的不利发展中,这是PCC最重要的客户来源。”沙纳汉指出,巴菲特“永远是一位绅士,不会把任何人扔到公交车下”。

In the past, Buffett has written that if Berkshire can't beat the S&P 500 over time, investors would be better off buying an index fund. Berkshire has trailed the S&P 500 over the past five and 10 years.

过去,巴菲特曾写道,如果随着时间的推移,伯克希尔不能击败标准普尔500指数(S&P500),投资者最好购买指数基金。伯克希尔在过去五年和十年里一直落后于标准普尔500指数。

Buffett didn't discuss that in the letter or offer a view on whether he thinks Berkshire can beat the S&P 500 in the future.

巴菲特在信中没有讨论这一点,也没有就他认为伯克希尔哈撒韦公司未来能否击败标准普尔500指数提出看法。

Among the reasons for the underperformance is Berkshire's inability to find what he has called an elephant-size acquisition to sop up Berkshire's enormous cash holdings, which totaled $138 billion at year-end 2020.

业绩不佳的原因之一是,伯克希尔无法找到他所说的大象大小的收购来吸收伯克希尔持有的巨额现金。截至2020年底,伯克希尔持有的现金总额为1,380亿美元。

Berkshire also failed to capitalize on the stock market's drop in early 2020 as it was a net seller of about $8 billion of stocks during the year, including airline and financial holdings.

伯克希尔也未能利用2020年初股市下跌的机会,因为它在这一年净卖出了约80亿美元的股票,其中包括航空公司和金融机构持有的股票。

Rolfe would like to see a more prominent role for Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, Berkshire executives who each run an estimated $20 billion of the company's $281 billion equity portfolio.

罗尔夫希望看到托德·库姆斯(Todd Combs)和泰德·韦斯切勒(Ted Weschler)在伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的高管中扮演更重要的角色,他们各自管理着公司2810亿美元股票投资组合中的约200亿美元。

They are likely to take over the entire portfolio in the post-Buffett era, and are thought to have bought new-economy companies like Amazon.com (AMZN) and Snowflake (SNOW) for Berkshire, while Buffett's two major purchases in 2020 were Chevron (CVX) and Verizon Communications (VZ).

他们可能会在后巴菲特时代接手整个投资组合,并被认为已经为伯克希尔收购了亚马逊(Amazon.com)和雪花(Snowflake)等新经济公司,而巴菲特在2020年的两大收购是雪佛龙(Chevron)和威瑞森通信(Verizon Communications)。

"Buffett loves baseball analogies," Rolfe said. "I would have liked him to have said: 'Ted and Todd have been here for about 10 years and they have proven that they can hit big-league pitching, so I'm promoting them to the big leagues and their new quest is to shrink the number of stocks they own and swing a fat bat so their one or two best ideas will be on our list of largest equity holdings."'

“巴菲特喜欢棒球的类比,”罗尔夫说。“我希望他会说:‘泰德和托德已经在这里待了大约10年了,他们已经证明了他们可以在大联盟投球,所以我把他们提升到大联盟,他们的新目标是减少他们拥有的股票数量,挥舞着一只肥大的蝙蝠,这样他们的一两个最好的想法就会出现在我们的最大股票持有量名单上。”

Buffett has praised Combs and Weschler, noting that each has closely matched the S&P 500 with the portfolios they manage and have done better than him.

巴菲特赞扬了库姆斯和韦斯切勒,指出这两家公司都将标准普尔500指数与他们管理的投资组合紧密匹配,而且都比他做得更好。

The CEO, who turned 90 in August, shows no signs of giving up the leadership role that he has had since 1965. It's telling that Berkshire's annual meeting, to be held virtually in Los Angeles on May 1, will feature Buffett and his longtime partner, the 97-year-old Vice Chairman Charlie Munger, who didn't participate in last year's meeting.

这位今年8月满90岁的首席执行官没有表现出放弃自1965年以来一直担任的领导角色的迹象。很能说明问题的是,伯克希尔将于5月1日在洛杉矶召开年会,巴菲特和他的长期合作伙伴、97岁的副董事长查理·芒格(Charlie Munger)将出席会议。芒格没有参加去年的会议。

Buffett's likely successor as CEO, Greg Abel, a Berkshire vice chairman and head of the company's vast noninsurance operations, will play a secondary role after sharing the stage with Buffett at the company's 2020 virtual annual meeting. Abel and veteran Berkshire insurance executive Ajit Jain will be available to answer shareholder questions at the meeting about their operations.

巴菲特可能的继任者、伯克希尔副董事长、公司庞大的非保险业务负责人格雷格·阿贝尔(Greg Abel)将在2020年公司虚拟年会上与巴菲特同台后,扮演次要角色。阿贝尔和伯克希尔资深保险高管阿吉特·贾恩(Ajit Jain)将在会上回答股东关于他们运营的问题。

"And now -- drum roll, please -- a surprise," Buffett wrote. "This year our meeting will be held in Los Angeles...and Charlie will be on stage with me offering answers and observations throughout the 31 2-hour question period. I missed him last year and, more important, you clearly missed him."

巴菲特写道:“现在--请击鼓--给我一个惊喜。”“今年我们的会面将在洛杉矶举行……在31个2小时的提问时间里,查理将和我一起上台提供答案和观察。我去年很想念他,更重要的是,你显然很想念他。”

This could be one of the last meetings that the legendary pair share the stage, given their advanced age, and most shareholders likely will relish the opportunity to see them together even if it means giving short shrift to the next generation of leadership.

考虑到这对传奇人物年事已高,这可能是他们最后几次同台的会议之一,大多数股东可能会很高兴有机会看到他们在一起,即使这意味着对下一代领导层不屑一顾。

Write to Andrew Bary at andrew.bary@barrons.com

写信给安德鲁·巴里,电子邮件:andrew.bary@Barrons.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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February 27, 2021 14:30 ET (19:30 GMT)

2021年2月27日东部时间14:30(格林尼治标准时间19:30)

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