Morgan Stanley's Gorman on Rates in 2024: 'They Go Down'

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moomoo News Jan 3 14:26

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  • 00:00 Where do you think interest rates go
  • 00:01 headed into the end of the year?
  • 00:02 And what do you think the market starts to look like through 2024?
  • 00:05 They go down, as
  • 00:08 simple as that.
  • 00:08 Yeah.
  • 00:09 How far down?
  • 00:10 I've got no idea.
  • 00:11 I mean,
  • 00:11 I thought that
  • 00:13 unlikely the Fed would cut rates this year, but inflation has moved
  • 00:17 down pretty materially
  • 00:19 quickly that it's now become more likely.
  • 00:21 So
  • 00:22 first half of the year, I suspect nothing back half of the year.
  • 00:24 They could easily move a couple, they could move a couple of times.
  • 00:26 But the key point is
  • 00:28 we started this journey with inflation at 10% rates at 0,
  • 00:33 unemployment at 3 1/2%,
  • 00:36 and my objective was to get us to four, four and four,
  • 00:40 4% inflation, 4% rates, 4% unemployment.
  • 00:43 We're about 3% inflation.
  • 00:45 We're 5%, five and a half in rates and we're about 3 1/2 in unemployment.
  • 00:48 So rates will come down.
  • 00:49 Do you think the economy is in an all clear when it looks like
  • 00:52 a soft landing versus a hard landing?
  • 00:54 Do you think that the economy will survive this year in good shape?
  • 00:58 Economy is fine.
  • 00:59 I mean
  • 01:00 there's there's this obsession with the R word recession.
  • 01:03 I mean, you have recessions.
  • 01:05 They come and go when you get imbalances between unemployment rates and economic growth.
  • 01:09 So no, the the economy is doing fine.
  • 01:12 I personally think it is unlikely we'll have a recession,
  • 01:15 very unlikely we'll have a hard landing,
  • 01:18 but we'll see.
  • 01:18 But the odds are clearly in favor of soft landing.
  • 01:21 I think the Fed's done a great job.