Market recap on financials' earnings call

金融类股财报的市场回顾

Opinion 01/13/2020 19:14 ET  Moomoo News

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The U.S. equities closed higher on Monday, extending the gains after news that U.S. will remove China from the currency manipulator list. And investors' optimism over the coming trade agreement signing event is making the S&P forever-grinding to the upside.

(S&P 500: 3288.13 +0.7% DOW: 28907.05 +0.29% NASDAQ: 9273.93 +1.04%

While we are on the one-way ticket to the upside and about to move into earnings, in today's market review, let's discuss some of the upside strategies that investors usually use. The earnings that coming first is going to be the financials.

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XLF Daily Basis

As the chart shows above, over the past 5 weeks financials have done literally nothing but consolidation in the same range. Today it edged a bit to the upside with 0.68% gains toward earnings imminent.

If you take a look at the Implied Volatility that options market priced specifically for $Financial Select Sector SPDR(XLF.US)$, you could realize the IV for XLF has jumped up to 20% with 4 days remaining of the week, means it is supposed to move 20% higher or lower and mostly a 68% of the time should stay in this range within this week.

Over the exact same time frame, SPX got about 10% IV, so financials right now have over twice volatility packed in than S&P, signaling it is ready to move as the earnings ahead.

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The chart above shows the big directional bets toward individual banks like $JPMorgan Chase & Co(JPM.US)$, $Bank of America Corporation(BAC.US)$, $Citigroup Inc(C.US)$, $Wells Fargo & Co(WFC.US)$. They are all coming out and they have the ability to move the entire financial sector.

A top scenario strategy toward individuals ahead of earnings could be a butterfly spread strategy. Since the caps are big and investors usually would use a butterfly. For instance, in a bullish view, an investor could write two call options at the weekly IV's upper edge of the specific underlying, then buying a lower and a higher strike on the two sides to limit the risk and capture the profit. and Bearish to write the lower calls, Neutral to write ATM calls.

Author/Eli

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美国股市周一收高,延续了美国将中国从汇率操纵国名单中除名的消息。投资者对即将到来的贸易协定签署活动的乐观态度,使标普指数永远处于高位。

(标准普尔500:3288.13+0.7%道:28907.05+0.29%纳斯达克:9273.93+1.04%)

虽然我们正处于上行的单程票上,即将进入盈利领域,但在今天的市场评估中,让我们来讨论一些投资者通常使用的上行策略。排在第一位的收益将是金融类的。

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XLF日基

如上图所示,过去5周来,金融类股除了在同一区间内进行整合外,几乎什么也没做。今天,该股小幅上扬,收益即将上涨0.68%。

如果你看看期权市场专门为美元金融选择部门SPDR(XLF.US)定价的隐含波动率,你可能会意识到,XLF的IV指数在本周还剩4天的时间里已经跃升到20%,这意味着它应该会上涨20%或更低,而且大部分时间应该在本周内保持在这个区间内。

在完全相同的时间框架内,SPX获得了大约10%的IV,因此金融股目前的波动性超过标普的两倍,这表明随着未来收益的增长,SPX已经做好了行动的准备。

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上图显示了摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase&Co)、美国银行(Bank Of America Corporation)、花旗集团(Citigroup Inc.,c.US)、富国银行(WellsFargo&Co)、富国银行(WellsFargo&Co)等银行的大笔定向押注。他们都出来了,他们有能力推动整个金融部门的发展。

在盈利之前,针对个人的最佳情景策略可能是一种蝴蝶式的利差策略。由于上限很大,投资者通常会使用蝴蝶。例如,从多头的观点来看,投资者可以在每周第四周特定标的的上限上写两种看涨期权,然后买入双方的较低和更高的期权,以限制风险和获取利润。空头写较低的电话,中性写自动取款机的电话。

提交人/Eli

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