Microsoft Looks to Have Reached its Inflection Point
Microsoft Looks to Have Reached its Inflection Point
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Prices for Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) stock, combined with the notion that it is among secular tech winners, mean it's a steal at the moment. Simply consider that it's down 22% in 2022, but that it has massive upside of 35% based on target prices — and its attraction is obvious. But without any signal that the tech wreck will relent, or at least spare Microsoft, it's difficult to move on that notion.
价格：微软(纳斯达克：MSFT)股票，再加上它是长期科技赢家的概念，意味着目前它是一笔便宜货。简单地考虑一下，它在2022年下跌了22%，但根据目标价格，它有35%的巨大上涨-它的吸引力是显而易见的。但是，如果没有任何迹象表明技术灾难将会缓和，或者至少会放过微软，那么很难继续推进这一想法。
Strong Signals
强烈信号
The good news is that there are signals the tech wreck is slowing, or at least that the tech wreck is beginning to show a distinction between the winners and the losers. Those signals came in the form of recent comments from Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives. He believes that strong tech firms underpinned by secular drivers have a strong chance of emerging relatively unscathed.
好消息是，有迹象表明，科技股的崩盘正在放缓，或者至少科技崩盘开始显示出赢家和输家之间的区别。这些信号来自韦德布什分析师丹尼尔·艾夫斯最近的评论。他认为，由世俗驱动因素支撑的强大科技公司很有可能相对毫发无损地脱颖而出。
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In other words, he believes that previously noted secular drivers including cloud, cyber security, and the new digital age aren't going anywhere.
换句话说，他认为之前提到的包括云、网络安全和新数字时代在内的世俗驱动因素不会去任何地方。
That means that a select few tech names, including Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Salesforce (NASDAQ:CRM), and Microsoft may be reaching an inflection point. Investor capital, which fled every tech name through the first half of 2022, should flood back into the so-called secular winners within tech moving forward.
这意味着一些精选的科技公司，包括苹果(纳斯达克：AAPL), Salesforce(纳斯达克：CRM)，而微软可能正走到一个拐点。在2022年上半年逃离所有科技公司的投资者资本，应该会重新涌入科技行业未来的所谓长期赢家。
Already Underway?
已经在进行了吗？
There's some indication that this could already be underway based on price charts. On Jun. 13, MSFT stock closed at $242.26, dipping to its lowest point this year. Since then, it has moved above $260.
有一些迹象表明，根据价格图表，这一趋势可能已经开始。6月13日，微软股价收于242.26美元，跌至今年以来的最低点。自那以来，金价已升至260美元上方。
The idea here is that Microsoft will decouple from the overall market downturn. It has tracked overall losses fairly well so far. But the more investors recognize its true strengths, the higher it will go regardless of overall market trends.
这里的想法是，微软将与整体市场低迷脱钩。到目前为止，它对整体亏损的跟踪相当好。但投资者越是认识到它的真正优势，无论整体市场趋势如何，它就会走得越高。
Right now, a lot of that strength lies in perceptions of cloud performance and what the cloud means overall.
目前，这种优势很大程度上在于人们对云性能的看法，以及云在整体上意味着什么。
If the cloud argument doesn't sway investors, overall performance should. The company recorded $49.4 billion in revenues in the most-recent quarter. A year ago, that figure was less than $42 billion. At that time, many had to wonder how much bigger Microsoft could get. The answer was 18% in a year.
如果云的说法不能动摇投资者，那么整体业绩应该会动摇。该公司在最近一个季度录得494亿美元的收入。一年前，这一数字还不到420亿美元。当时，许多人不得不想知道微软还能变得更大。答案是一年内增长18%。
Azure
碧蓝
As Wedbush's Daniel Ives noted, the cloud is a secular trend that isn't going anywhere. Its importance will remain. The positive news there is that Azure and other services increased 46% as of the firm's April earnings release.
正如韦德布什的丹尼尔·艾夫斯所指出的，云是一种不会消失的世俗趋势。它的重要性将继续存在。积极的消息是，截至公司4月份发布的财报，Azure和其他服务增长了46%。
Microsoft doesn't break out Azure revenues separately from overall revenue figures, so we can't know exactly. But Azure's massive growth coupled with its firm position as one of the big three means that as long as the cloud drives tech, Microsoft remains a premier name.
微软没有将Azure的营收从整体营收数据中分离出来，所以我们不能确切知道。但Azure的巨大增长，加上其作为三大巨头之一的坚定地位，意味着只要云驱动技术，微软就仍然是头号品牌。
So, Ives' assertion that it still means as much as it did before underpins his belief that Microsoft must remain a secular winner. That's a pretty easy bet to take.
因此，艾夫斯的断言，它仍然像以前一样意义重大，这巩固了他的信念，即微软必须保持长期的赢家。这是一个相当容易接受的赌注。
On the date of publication, Alex Sirois did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
截至发稿之日，Alex Sirois并未(直接或间接)持有本文所述证券的任何头寸。本文表达的观点是作者的观点，以InvestorPlace.com为准出版指南.
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微软似乎已经达到拐点的帖子最先出现在InvestorPlace上。