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观点 | 至暗时刻考验的,是情绪……

Point of view | the test in the darkest hour is emotion.

Moomoo News ·  Apr 25, 2022 11:55

Today, global stock markets have been hit hard.

The pessimistic mood was released again. Investors who survived March did not expect that it would be very black at the end of April.

If it's not so hard, you really need to have faith in the "cycle".

Society, economy, policy, supply and demand, and even human nature. Go round and round, sooner or later, the scale is different, but after all, like a pendulum, there is always a moment of reversal and "no".

If we look at investment masters like Buffett Munger, they have experienced a lot of drastic pullbacks in their decades of investment careers. None of these have affected their long-term outstanding performance.

Howard Marks says that when there is a crisis, to make money:First, you have to have money.Second, you have to have balls.Oh, dare to spend this money. When you have both, this is the formula for success.

At a daily journal shareholders' meeting, Munger told people at the scene: it is more difficult for your generation to invest than we did. If it's hard, it's hard. It's not hard. It's boring. Even if it is more difficult, don't lose heart. Smart Investment has selected several classic articles by investment masters in the darkest hour, which is worth experiencing over and over again, giving you and me meditation in the slump.

Every time he plummeted to review Peter Lynch's most classic interview, the mood was not so bad.

Peter Lynch, an investment guru, said: "it's not surprising that the stock market is falling. It always happens again and again, just like the cold winter in Minnesota. It's just a normal thing."

Successful stock pickers have the same relationship with falling stock markets as Minnesota residents have with cold weather.

You know that a sharp fall in the stock market always happens, and you are prepared to survive it in advance. If your bullish stock falls sharply along with other stocks, you will quickly seize the opportunity to buy more while it is low. "

In the face of the sharp fall in the market, Lynch stressed that he should be prepared to look at the stock market from a longer and farther perspective.

So, when the market plummeted, he was buying the cheap stocks he liked.

In 1996, Peter Lynch gave an interview with the US public television network. "in the stock market, time is good for you," he said of several slumps in history. When the stock market falls, if you have money and you are not worried about falling, you can increase your position. You should not worry about a temporary fall. What you should worry about is what will happen to 10-or 20-year-old stocks. "

Review the most classic interview written by investment master Peter Lynch. If it still doesn't comfort you, take a look at Peter Lynch's 36 most valuable golden sentences and see how Lynch deals with falling flying knives.

When the market is upset, think of Munger's words: which one of us who makes value investments doesn't come out?

Munger has experienced a bigger pullback and decline than Buffett in his past investments.

But the wise old man, 98 years old, is still active in the front line, sharing his wisdom generously.

In the worst of times, think about Munger's words:

Our generation, our group of people who make value investments, which one does not come out, stick to it, and do not even need to be smart.

He said this at the annual meeting of Daily Journal (Daily Journal) in 2017.

'it 's more difficult for your generation to invest than we did then,'he told the people at the scene. If it's hard, it's hard. It's not hard. It's boring. Even if it is more difficult, don't lose heart.

The 98-year-old Munger has always been known for his poisonous tongue.

However, every time I read it, Munger's seemingly poisonous words can reach the hearts of the people and poke people's hearts. At the worst of times, take a look at Munger's 38 classic tips:

Buffett: there are about six opportunities for gold in the sky in a lifetime.

"over the next 10 years, everyone in this room may be a net buyer of stocks rather than a net seller, so everyone should expect share prices to fall even lower. "

This is Warren Buffett's speech at Florida Business School on October 15, 1998.

In this speech, Buffett answered five important questions in the stock market crash.

"do you prefer falling markets? "

"what do you think of the future economic situation? "

"what do you think about when looking at a company? "

……

Buffett answered these questions in the context of the collapse of long-term Capital from July to August 1998. The s & p 500 and the Dow Jones industrial average are down nearly 20%, while the NASDAQ is down nearly 30%.

The answer in these slumps is particularly meaningful from today's market point of view.

As Buffett said: "A good opportunity is the one that screams for you to buy." For example, in 2008, when asset prices were cheap, there was no need to be afraid. In your lifetime investment career, this kind of golden opportunity will be encountered about 6 times. "

Looking back at Buffett's Berkshire, there have been several large-scale net worth withdrawals in history.

At the 2020 shareholders' meeting, Buffett said, "I have experienced three times in history, the price of Berkshire stock has fallen 50%, three times." If you borrowed money to buy the stock, you will be wiped out. "

But none of this has affected Berkshire's subsequent glory.

Buffett advised investors not to try to bottom out, no one can help you choose stocks, to be prepared to fall 50% or more, to be able to adapt to this situation, calm, suitable to enter the market.

In his opinion, some people are not very concerned or sensitive, but some people are more likely to be scared than others.

If you can't deal with it psychologically, then you really shouldn't hold stocks because you will buy and sell at the wrong time.

How does Buffett deal with the pullback?

All crises will pass, and if you wait for the robin to come, you will miss the whole spring

Looking back, look at the recent decline in the market.

If you are worried about the geopolitical situation, it has had an impact on global markets, but looking back over the past hundred years, geo-crises have occurred several times.

The long-term performance of these investment masters, Buffett, has not been affected by the geographical situation.

In 1994, Buffett wrote in a letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders:

"We will continue to ignore political and economic forecasts because they distract investors and businessmen and are expensive. Thirty years ago, no one could have predicted the outbreak of the Vietnam War, wage and price controls, oil price shocks, the resignation of the president, the collapse of the Soviet Union, or that the Dow would fall 508 points in a single day, or that Treasury yields would fluctuate between 2.8% and 17.4%.

However, these global sensational events have neither affected Benjamin Graham's investment guidelines nor affected investors from buying high-quality assets at reasonable prices.

Imagine how much we would have to pay if we were overcome by the fear of the unknown and delayed or changed the allocation of capital. It turns out that we tend to get the best deal when the panic caused by a major event is at its peak. Panic is the enemy of zealots and the friend of those who abide by the basic rules of the market. "

In addition to Buffett, investment masters such as Templeton Dario Peter Lynch have also experienced the darkest moments:

If you are afraid of the epidemic, the economic crisis.

There is no shortage of sudden crises in history, whether it is SARS, financial crisis, or geo-crisis.

Buffett wrote in 2008 that if you wait for the robin to arrive, you will miss the whole spring.

At a time when the market is full of panic, I hope that the perspective and way of thinking of these investment masters who have gone through many crises will shock us and wait for the spring to blossom!

We believe that this spring will certainly come, and we will eventually go out of the house to enjoy the scenery outside. we also believe that good investors should not wait for the robins to announce the spring before they can see the full view of spring.

Edit / Viola

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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