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Wall Street finds new value in cash as global fears weigh on markets

Wall Street finds new value in cash as global fears weigh on markets

隨着全球擔憂令市場承壓,華爾街發現了現金的新價值
Dow Jones ·  2022/04/25 08:00  · 市場

By Dion Rabouin

迪翁·拉布因著

Worries about the war in Ukraine, a U.S. or European recession and surging global inflation are making a long-spurned asset increasingly popular with Wall Street's top money managers these days: cash.

對烏克蘭戰爭、美國或歐洲經濟衰退以及全球通脹飆升的擔憂,使得一種長期遭到摒棄的資產如今越來越受到華爾街頂級基金經理的青睞:現金。

As stock and bond prices have retreated from records in the tumult of headlines, more asset managers said they are looking to move funds into low-risk, cash-like assets. That marks a shift from recent years, when steadily climbing equity indexes trained investors to buy every dip and not miss out on gains by holding cash.

隨着股票和債券價格從頭條新聞中的創紀錄水平回落,更多的資產管理公司表示,他們正尋求將資金轉移到低風險、類似現金的資產中。這標誌着與近幾年的轉變,當時穩步攀升的股指訓練投資者逢低買入,不會因為持有現金而錯失收益。

Rick Rieder, managing director at $Blackrock(BLK.US)$, said the world's largest asset manager is increasing cash holdings by more than 50% in many portfolios to a weighting that is "much, much higher" than it had been in years past. With central banks battling inflation by raising interest rates across the world, he expects stock prices to remain volatile for the next two to six months.

瑞克·裏德,董事管理公司$貝萊德(美國黑人)$表示,這家全球最大的資產管理公司正在將許多投資組合中的現金持有量增加50%以上,其權重比過去幾年“高得多”。隨着世界各地的央行通過提高利率來對抗通脹,他預計未來兩到六個月,股價將保持波動。

For now, one of the most attractive things you can do is have patience, and if you can get paid to have patience that's a pretty good place to be." 

- Mr. Rieder said

就目前而言,你能做的最有吸引力的事情之一就是有耐心,如果你能拿到有耐心的報酬,那就是一個相當好的去處。

-裏德先生説

Prime money-market funds' holdings in the Americas rose from just under $146 billion in February to $193 billion in March, their highest levels of the year, according to data from the Investment Company Institute. Many expect such holdings to keep rising as rates on money markets, short-term bonds and other cash-like investments climb with interest-rates set by the Federal Reserve.

美國投資公司協會(Investment Company Institute)的數據顯示,優質貨幣市場基金在美洲的持有量從2月份的略低於1,460億美元增至3月份的1,930億美元,為今年以來的最高水平。許多人預計,隨着貨幣市場、短期債券和其他現金類投資的利率隨着美聯儲設定的利率攀升,此類持有量將繼續上升。

Additionally, yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes rose last week above the rate of projected average annual inflation over the next decade for the first time since March 2020. That means investors can once again earn a return on risk-free U.S. government bonds and it is meaningfully more expensive for companies to borrow money.

此外,10年期美國國債收益率上週自2020年3月以來首次超過了未來十年預計的年平均通脹率。這意味着投資者可以再次從無風險的美國政府債券中獲得回報,企業借錢的成本也明顯上升。

These developments are testing the long-held market view that there is no alternative to U.S. stocks, which is often referred to using the acronym "TINA." The lack of alternatives was "one of the biggest bull mantras for the equity market," said Ohsung Kwon, U.S. equity strategist at Bank of America.

這些事態發展正在考驗市場長期持有的觀點,即除了美國股市之外別無選擇,這一觀點經常被用首字母縮寫TINA來指代。美國銀行美國股市策略師Ohung Kuan表示,缺乏替代選擇是“股市最大的牛市口號之一”.

"If the cash yield really hits 3%, I think that the TINA argument really diminishes," Mr. Kwon said. "That is obviously not the best environment for risky assets."

“如果現金收益率真的達到3%,我認為蒂娜的理由真的會減弱,”權相權説。“這顯然不是風險資產的最佳環境。”

In recent years, the $S&P 500 index(.SPX.US)$'s dividend yield, which measures the annualized payouts by companies in the index as a proportion of their share price, has exceeded the yield on bonds maturing in 10 years or more. Moreover, stocks have delivered almost triple their historic return since 2009, meaning they offered both the income of bonds and the potential for greater gains -- a compelling argument for portfolios to be overweight on U.S. equities.

近幾年來,$標準普爾500指數(.SPX.US)$股息收益率衡量的是該指數成分股公司的年化派息佔其股價的比例,已經超過了10年或更長時間內到期的債券的收益率。此外,自2009年以來,股票的回報率幾乎是歷史上的三倍,這意味着它們既提供了債券的收益,也提供了更大收益的可能性。這為投資組合增持美國股票提供了一個令人信服的理由。

Bank of America is expecting the Federal Reserve to raise U.S. interest rates to 3% by early next year from their current level of 0.25% to 0.50%. That would produce a similar rate for cash-like assets such as money-market funds, which track short-dated Treasurys, high-quality investment-grade bonds and commercial paper. That rate would be more than double the current 1.4% dividend yield of the S&P 500.

美國銀行預計,美聯儲將在明年初將美國利率從目前的0.25%至0.50%上調至3%。這將對貨幣市場基金等類現金資產產生類似的利率,這些基金跟蹤短期美國國債、高質量投資級債券和商業票據。這一比率將是標準普爾500指數目前1.4%股息收益率的兩倍多。

Even though rates are well below that today, fund managers said they are ready to move into cash. Bank of America's April survey of global asset managers showed cash holdings are near the highest level since April 2020, which was the aftermath of the Covid-driven market selloff, and cash is one of the survey's most popular trades.

儘管今天的利率遠低於這一水平,但基金經理們表示,他們已經準備好轉向現金。美國銀行4月份對全球資產管理公司的調查顯示,現金持有量接近2020年4月以來的最高水平,而2020年4月是Covid引發的市場拋售的後果,現金是調查中最受歡迎的交易之一。

Gaurav Mallik, chief investment strategist and global head of client solutions at State Street Global Advisors, said portfolios at his firm are holding at least 50% more cash than they did at the beginning of the year, with increased focus on "keeping dry powder" by holding cash and money-market funds.

道富環球顧問公司(State Street Global Advisors)首席投資策略師兼客户解決方案全球主管高拉夫·馬利克(Gaurav Mallik)説,他的公司的投資組合持有的現金比年初至少增加了50%,人們更多地關注通過持有現金和貨幣市場基金來“保持乾粉”。

"Cash is king right now in terms of the return you're getting," Mr. Mallik said.

馬利克説,“就你現在獲得的回報而言,現金是王道。”

The TINA narrative is drawing other challenges. Floating-rate debt, which pays increasingly higher interest as short-term borrowing costs rise, has garnered more attention recently, as have Treasury inflation-protected securities. While bond prices have fallen, hurting investors who held them already, those lower prices mean higher payouts that are attractive to new investors.

蒂娜的故事還引發了其他挑戰。隨着短期借貸成本的上升,浮動利率債券的利息越來越高,它最近引起了更多的關注,美國國債通脹保值債券也是如此。雖然債券價格下跌,損害了已經持有債券的投資者,但較低的價格意味着更高的派息,對新投資者具有吸引力。

In addition, fund managers and advisers said they are getting more questions from clients about vehicles such as savings bonds. Rich Steinberg, chief market strategist at the Colony Group, said that as inflation started rising last year he began fielding inquiries about Series I savings bonds, which track the consumer-price index and will offer a yield of 9.62% in May. He purchased the maximum $10,000 investment each for himself and his wife.

此外,基金經理和顧問表示,他們從客户那裏得到了更多關於儲蓄債券等投資工具的問題。Colony Group首席市場策略師斯坦伯格(Rich Steinberg)説,隨着去年通脹開始上升,他開始回覆有關第一系列儲蓄債券的詢問。這種債券跟蹤消費者價格指數,5月份的收益率將為9.62%。他為自己和妻子每人購買了最高1萬美元的投資。

Mr. Steinberg has increased holdings of cash and is looking to put more money in short-dated U.S. Treasury bonds if the Fed continues its expected path of raising interest rates to at least 2% by year-end.

斯坦伯格已經增加了現金持有量,如果美聯儲繼續按照預期在年底前將利率提高到至少2%的水平,他將把更多資金投入短期美國國債。

"If the Fed follows the game plan that they've started to communicate, I think the TINA days are numbered," he said.

“如果美聯儲遵循他們已經開始溝通的遊戲計劃,我認為蒂娜的日子屈指可數了,”他説。

Write to Dion Rabouin at dion.rabouin@wsj.com

寫信給Dion Rabouin,電子郵件:dion.rabouin@wsj.com

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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