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中金：2024年全球石油市场或仍有望在供需配速之际维持偏紧格局

CICC: In 2024, the global oil market may still be expected to maintain a tight pattern as supply and demand speed

Moomoo 24/7 ·  Dec 17, 2023 18:49
Looking ahead, CICC believes that looking ahead, the current speculative positions in the oil market may have linearly extrapolated the trend expectations of inventory accumulation and reduced supply and demand, while the elimination of phased disturbances, the fulfillment of seasonal demand, and the growth momentum of non-OECD oil demand, which is still predictable, may become potential variables for improving linear expectations. At the same time, in addition to demand, CICC believes that the recent market's cautious attitude towards OPEC+'s tightening of short-term production constraints has also contributed to the weakening of expectations to a certain extent. Similar to the situation in 2Q23, when pessimistic market expectations dominate crude oil prices to a low cost, superimposed inventories are still in a low position. We believe that the implementation of supply-side constraints and improvements in demand-side expectations may become an upward trend in prices. The global oil market may still maintain a tight pattern in 2024 as supply and demand speeds up.
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