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美国失业率上升即将触发“萨姆法则”

The rise in the US unemployment rate is about to trigger the “Sam's Law”

Moomoo 24/7 ·  Nov 3, 2023 11:08

The US unemployment rate rose to 3.9% last month, which means the unemployment rate is about to trigger the so-called Sahm Rule (Sahm Rule). This rule was proposed by former Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm. She discovered that when the moving average of the US 3-month unemployment rate minus the low unemployment rate in the previous 12 months exceeds 0.5%, the recession begins. In the past, every stage of recession was in line with this situation. The lowest unemployment rate in 12 months so far is 3.4%. The unemployment rate for October was the highest in 12 months. Previously, it was 3.8% in August and September, slightly below 3.9%, while 3.9% would trigger Sam's law. (Bloomberg)

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