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中信证券：财政发力正当时，基建需求迎来向上拐点

CITIC Securities: At the right time for fiscal strength, infrastructure demand ushered in an upward inflection point

Moomoo 24/7 ·  Oct 25, 2023 20:12
The CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that the current increase in treasury bonds is significantly different from previous special treasury bonds. It is mainly reflected in the inclusion of the central government deficit and investment in the infrastructure sector, which has a more prominent effect on steady growth. The reason for managing special treasury bonds may be mainly to strengthen fiscal discipline. The deficit rate was raised to an all-time high, with the intention of coping with base pressure for the first quarter of next year, stabilizing the economic growth platform, and making up for the broad fiscal shortfall pressure. The market may have more room to imagine future fiscal policies, and economic growth forecasts for 2024-2025 may also be revised. It is expected that additional treasury bonds may drive GDP growth in 2023 and 2024 by 0.5 and 1.1 percentage points, respectively. Structurally, demand for infrastructure construction such as environmental water conservancy projects and high-standard farmland will increase markedly. Furthermore, the State Council's power to issue 60% additional local debt limits ahead of schedule will continue until the end of 2027, which will help maintain the sustainability of infrastructure investment. The infrastructure construction investment and construction materials industry are expected to enter a boom cycle.
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